CHINA: Is Taiwan Safe?

In today’s increasingly tense global landscape, the relationship between powerful nations and smaller, self-governing regions is drawing more attention than ever. One of the clearest examples is the growing strain between China and Taiwan. These tensions have been building for years, with Taiwan regularly facing pressure from Beijing—everything from diplomatic isolation to near-constant military drills by the People’s Liberation Army in the Taiwan Strait. It’s no wonder the region feels on edge.

In this post, I’m taking a fresh look at Taiwan and the mounting pressure it’s under from China. Despite its small size, Taiwan plays a massive role in the global tech scene—especially when it comes to producing microchips and other critical components that power our digital world. If the West loses sight of just how important that is, the consequences could be steep. China isn’t just flexing its military strength—it’s rapidly expanding its influence economically and socially, too.

 

 WHY IS TAIWAN SO IMPORTANT

Before we dive deeper, let’s start with a quick overview: what exactly is Taiwan? It’s a small island off the southeastern coast of China, home to about 23 million people. Officially called the Republic of China (ROC), Taiwan runs as a fully functioning democracy with its own government, military, and constitution. Even though it operates independently, China sees Taiwan as a breakaway province and has never ruled out using force to bring it under mainland control. This is the heart of the “One China” policy—something the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) insists every country must recognize and respect.

But Taiwan’s importance goes way beyond geography or politics. It’s a powerhouse in the global supply chain, especially when it comes to advanced semiconductors—the tiny chips that power everything from your smartphone to cutting-edge military tech. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, is the world’s top player in this field. In 2024 alone, TSMC accounted for a massive 67% of the global semiconductor market.

Strategically, Taiwan sits in a key part of the Indo-Pacific region, and its future holds big stakes—not just for the surrounding area, but for global stability as a whole.

THE DANCE OF INDEPENDENCE BETWEEN TAIWAN AND CHINA

Tensions between Taiwan and China have only gotten more intense in recent years—and the situation seems to escalate a little more with each passing year. China has been steadily ramping up the pressure, flying military aircraft into Taiwan’s air defense zone, conducting naval drills nearby, and doubling down on aggressive political rhetoric. At the same time, Beijing keeps trying to isolate Taiwan on the global stage, leaning on countries and international organizations to avoid recognizing or officially engaging with it.

Taiwan, meanwhile, isn’t standing still. It’s been bolstering its defenses and quietly strengthening ties with key partners like the United States and Japan. Public opinion on the island has also shifted—more and more people identify as Taiwanese rather than Chinese, and there’s broad support for keeping things as they are: self-governed and functionally independent.

The problem comes that every step Taiwan takes to reinforce its autonomy tends to trigger a stronger response from Beijing. The more the island pushes to define its own path, the more China pushes back to keep it firmly within what it sees as its territory.

WHAT IMPACT DOES IT HAVE IF INVADED OR NOT?

If China were to invade Taiwan, the consequences would be catastrophic. A conflict in the Taiwan Strait wouldn’t just affect the island—it could destabilize the entire Asia-Pacific region, disrupt global trade routes, and trigger an economic shock. Taiwan is a crucial part of the global tech supply chain, particularly in semiconductors, and losing access to this would send ripples through industries worldwide, from smartphones to defense systems. Beyond the economic fallout, the human cost would be staggering, with widespread civilian casualties and displacement.

However, if Taiwan can maintain peace and avoid conflict, it continues to be a strong democratic partner in the region, a key economic player, and a counterbalance to authoritarian expansion. Preserving the current status quo keeps the region stable and allows for deeper global cooperation without the looming threat of war.

Questions about whether Taiwan could be invaded and how to prevent it are on the minds of experts worldwide, especially with the ongoing war in Ukraine. There’s a growing belief that Xi Jinping is closely watching the international response to Russia’s actions, gauging whether he could make a similar move in Taiwan without facing severe consequences. At the very least, any invasion would likely result in harsh sanctions and economic isolation for China, disrupting global markets.

That said, an invasion of Taiwan is highly unlikely and would be a major miscalculation for China. The logistical challenges of an amphibious assault on Taiwan are immense, as its beaches aren’t suitable for large-scale landings. With Taiwan’s strong defense infrastructure and a narrow window of opportunity (either in April or October, due to calmer weather), such an invasion would likely result in a bloody, drawn-out conflict with severe economic and geopolitical consequences for China.

 

 

EUROPEAN AND UNITED STATES RESPONSE

The United States has long been a vocal supporter of Taiwan, supplying defensive arms under the Taiwan Relations Act and reaffirming its commitment to peace in the Taiwan Strait. While the U.S. officially maintains a policy of “strategic ambiguity,” recent political and military engagements suggest increasing support for Taiwan’s right to defend itself.

In fact, a recent leaked document from the U.S. Department of Defense reveals that China, along with the protection of Taiwan, is now one of America’s top priorities. However, this also means the U.S. might shift focus away from Europe in favor of dealing with China. There’s still some concern, though—especially with President Donald Trump, who has voiced doubts about rushing to Taiwan’s defense. Trump has raised issues about Taiwan’s trade practices, particularly in the semiconductor industry, arguing that Taiwan is undercutting American manufacturing and taking advantage of U.S. markets.

On the European side, concern over Taiwan is growing. Traditionally more cautious in foreign policy, countries like the UK, France, and Germany are increasingly speaking up in support of Taiwan. This support comes in the form of parliamentary visits, trade cooperation, and public statements against any attempts to alter Taiwan’s status through force. The European Union, meanwhile, is reassessing its stance on Taiwan, especially as tensions with China rise over human rights abuses and economic coercion. However, the EU remains a cautious bloc, and can only offer limited support—mainly diplomatic backing and the possibility of sanctions if China were to invade Taiwan.

Despite this, many European countries maintain informal ties with Taiwan, with representatives and mission offices across the continent, as well as strong cultural and educational exchanges that further strengthen their relationship.

CONCLUSION

So, is Taiwan safe? For now, Taiwan remains peaceful and resilient, but it sits in one of the world's most dangerous geopolitical flashpoints. China's growing assertiveness and military buildup present a constant threat, while the strategic interests of the U.S. and its allies mean that any conflict could have global consequences. Ensuring Taiwan’s safety will depend not only on its own defenses but also on continued international support and a collective commitment to maintaining peace and stability in the region.

References

• Focus Taiwan - TSMC market share tops 67% in Q4: Advisory firm
• The Guardian - Hegseth indicates US backing for Taiwan – but it is transactional Trump who has the final word
• Global Guardian - Will China Invade Taiwan? A Potential Timeline for Conflict
• The Interpreter - China, Taiwan, and the PLA’s 2027 milestones
• Asia Times - Taking Taiwan: Will Xi or won’t Xi?