EDITOR'S CORNER: A Peace Deal for Ukraine?

This week, Ukrainian officials and their American counterparts gathered in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, for important peace talks aimed at advancing a resolution to the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed a 30-day ceasefire, which was swiftly rejected by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In this post, we’ll delve into the significance of these talks and explore what a potential peace deal could mean for both Ukraine and Russia. We also explore what it can mean for relations between Europe and America. 

 

TRUMP'S AMBITIOUS GOAL

When Donald Trump became President of the United States, he set an ambitious goal: to end the war within 24 hours of taking office. While this initial timeline was widely regarded as unrealistic, he extended the deadline to his first 100 days in office—a period still too short to resolve such a complex geopolitical conflict.

Peace talks involving the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine have been marred by challenges from the outset. The U.S. initially sought to push Europe and Ukraine out of the negotiations, and later, Trump attempted to pressure Zelenskyy into agreeing to a controversial mineral deal, as well as to yield to Russia’s unreasonable demands.

PUTIN DOES NOT BUDGE

Following the ceasefire proposal, President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia is open to a ceasefire—but with a long list of significant demands attached. In his view, these conditions are justified, as he fears that a 30-day ceasefire would allow Ukraine time to rest, regroup, and strengthen its position. Russia is concerned that during this period, Ukrainian forces would continue their training, receive Western weapons, and bolster their capabilities. Moreover, if Ukraine remains stationed in Kursk, it would give them the opportunity to consolidate their forces, potentially preparing for a larger offensive in the future.

It’s clear that Russia has no intention of halting the fight—and it’s easy to see why. By most accounts, they are currently gaining the upper hand. The Russians have nearly regained all the territory they lost in Kursk. For Russia, it's largely a matter of time. If they continue to play the waiting game, they believe they can steadily reclaim more territory from Ukraine, eventually putting Ukraine in a position where they have no choice but to capitulate.

ZELENSKYY HAS NO CHOICE 

Unfortunately, Ukraine finds itself in a difficult position. Since the mishandling at the White House, they’ve lost significant ground in the war. The breakdown in intelligence meant that Ukraine was effectively fighting in Kursk with one hand tied behind its back, giving Russia a prime opportunity to take the offensive. Now, rumors emerging from Kursk suggest that the Russians suddenly had accurate intelligence on Ukrainian positions, allowing them to launch more effective attacks. These whispers are pointing to the possibility that this intelligence may have been provided by the United States.

While it’s hard to believe that America would be foolish enough to conspire with Russia, there’s still the possibility that the breakdown in American intelligence sharing with Ukraine gave Russia a significant advantage. Russia has its own efficient intelligence network, capable of gathering critical information on its own. However, the disruption in Ukraine's access to American intelligence likely provided Russia with an opportunity to strike more effectively, without any direct collaboration between the two countries.

With Kursk gone and Ukraine being dependent on America aid and intelligence, what is Zelenskyy to do but to agree to whatever demands Trump wants of him? Does this make Zelenskyy a coward? I would not say so. He is playing the smart game, while maintaining dignity and some kind of semblance of truth. But, the truth is that Ukraine needs to come to some sort of end of war, otherwise Europe and America need to step up their efforts with the weapons. So that we give Ukraine a leg up to beat the Russians back. 

WHAT'S NEXT?

No one knows what comes next. Russia has presented a long list of demands from Ukraine in exchange for what they call "peace." These include the annexation of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia regions—a lot of territory that is still under Ukrainian control. Russia also wants Ukraine to be restricted to a limited military, rendering it unable to defend itself. Furthermore, they demand the installation of a puppet regime in Kyiv, replacing the current Zelenskyy government. On top of that, Russia insists on no NATO membership for Ukraine, no NATO or Western troops on Ukrainian soil, and the creation of a buffer zone between the two nations.

These are demands that Ukraine simply cannot agree to—nor can anyone else. The annexation of these territories goes against international law and would set a dangerous precedent, one that belligerent nations could exploit. Take China, for example, with its ambitions toward Taiwan. Furthermore, there’s no guarantee that, in a few years, Russia won't launch another attack on Ukraine or target other nations like Moldova, Poland, or the Baltic states, using the same justifications they’ve used in Ukraine.

We’re playing a perilous game here. On top of all this, there’s a real risk that Russia will deepen the rift between Europe and the United States. If a deal is struck in such a way that Europe cannot accept it, the U.S. may attempt to pressure them into compliance, further straining transatlantic relations. Will these choices lead to more conflict? Only time will tell, and only Trump knows what is going on in his head right now. 

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the situation between Ukraine, Russia, and the international community remains perilously complex. Russia’s demands for a ceasefire, territory annexation, a weakened Ukrainian military, and the installation of a puppet regime are non-starters for Ukraine and the wider world, as they violate international law and set a dangerous precedent for other aggressive nations, like China. 

The breakdown in intelligence sharing between the U.S. and Ukraine has left Ukraine vulnerable, while Russia’s continued territorial ambitions cast doubt on any lasting peace. With rising tensions between Europe and America, the risk of further conflict remains high, as negotiations may push Europe to disagree with U.S. strategies.