EDITOR'S CORNER: Can Europe Trust China?

In an era of Trump economics and threats of tariffs looming in the near future, Europe faces a pressing question: can it trust China and build a closer economical relationship? As the world’s second-largest economy, China plays a crucial role in global trade, technology, and diplomacy. Yet, its authoritarian governance, human rights concerns, and aggressive geopolitical strategies make its reliability uncertain. While economic ties between Europe and China have deepened over the years, tensions remain over security, human rights, and supply chain dependencies. 

This blog post examines whether Europe can afford to trust China, weighing economic pragmatism against strategic caution.

EUROPE'S RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA  

Europe’s relationship with China is both intricate and dynamic, shaped by deep economic ties and persistent political tensions. China is the EU’s second-largest source of imports and a crucial trading partner, particularly in technology, green energy, and manufacturing. At the same time, Europe stands as China’s largest trading partner. However, despite the sheer volume of trade, friction persists, notably in disputes over the electric vehicle industry and dairy products.

Beyond trade, Europe remains cautious about Beijing’s policies on human rights, intellectual property rights, and economic coercion. The EU has struggled to adopt a unified stance—while Germany and France push for engagement, Eastern European nations and the UK favor a more confrontational approach. 

The EU is also increasingly concerned about its trade imbalance with China. Efforts to create a more level playing field and address structural asymmetries in the relationship may prove challenging for Beijing. Striking a balance between economic opportunity and geopolitical risk remains a key challenge for European policymakers.

CHINA'S AMBITION IN TAIWAN  

China’s ambition to reunify Taiwan with the mainland remains one of the most contentious issues in global politics. Despite Taiwan operating as a de facto independent nation, Beijing views it as a breakaway province and has not ruled out military force to achieve unification. This puts Europe in a tricky position—it officially upholds a “One China” policy while still maintaining unofficial ties with Taipei.

Even with the war in Ukraine ongoing, China remains a formidable and strategic rival to both the U.S. and Europe. While a direct military conflict between China and Europe seems unlikely, a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan could send shockwaves through global trade. It would destabilize markets, disrupt semiconductor supply chains, and force Europe to navigate a difficult balance between its economic reliance on China and its commitment to Western democratic values.

Beijing isn’t shy about its military ambitions. The Chinese Communist Party has set a 2027 deadline to enhance its defense forces—while this doesn’t necessarily mean an invasion is imminent, China has a track record of sticking to its strategic timelines. Adding to these concerns, construction is already underway on a massive new military complex just outside Beijing, reportedly ten times the size of the Pentagon. The facility, which began development in mid-2024, is expected to include nuclear-resistant bunkers to protect top Politburo officials, a command center, and cutting-edge military infrastructure.

All of this underscores how serious President Xi Jinping is about turning China into a dominant military powerhouse—one that doesn’t just rival the U.S. but aims to surpass it.

HOW RELIABLE IS CHINA?

We need to ask ourselves: how reliable is China as a global trading partner? This question becomes even more pressing if Europe turns to Chinese imports to get around Trump’s aggressive tariff policies.

My biggest concern is that China doesn’t see Europe—or any Western country—as a genuine ally, but rather as a necessary player to engage with when it suits its interests. That means when things get tough, China could cut exports, reduce imports, and disrupt global trade on a massive scale. We got a preview of this during the pandemic, when shortages of critical products were exacerbated by China restricting exports to countries that challenged its policies. Overdependence on China is a serious risk.

We could easily find ourselves in a situation similar to the one with Russia at the start of the Ukraine invasion—except trade with China is on a far larger scale, meaning the fallout would be even worse. On top of that, the Chinese government’s lack of transparency—whether it’s manipulating economic data or concealing critical information during the COVID-19 pandemic—only deepens the distrust. While China has honored trade commitments in many cases, it has also used economic leverage for political gains, making Europe’s reliance on Chinese supply chains a growing strategic vulnerability. 

OTHER ALTERNATIVES  

Given these risks, Europe needs to rethink its trade strategy and reduce its dependence on both China and the U.S. One smart move would be strengthening economic ties with other Asian markets like India, Japan, and South Korea, which would provide much-needed diversification. Investing in domestic industries and reshoring supply chains could also help lessen reliance on Chinese and American manufacturing. At the same time, the EU’s push to build stronger partnerships in Africa and Latin America offers opportunities to secure raw materials and expand markets.

That said, this isn’t about cutting ties with the U.S. entirely. But as we watch a new Trump era unfold, it’s clear that trade with America carries its own risks. While the U.S. is Europe’s closest ally, recent rhetoric suggests that US foreign policy is becoming more unpredictable and transactional. Shifting trade policies, protectionist measures, and political instability could put a strain on transatlantic relations.

Trump has already shown a willingness to slap tariffs on European goods and use economic pressure to push his agenda. On top of that, U.S. priorities can shift rapidly, and Europe could find itself caught in the middle of geopolitical conflicts—whether with China, Russia, or elsewhere. Relying too heavily on the U.S. could leave Europe exposed to economic and strategic disruptions that are completely out of its control. Diversification isn’t just a good idea—it’s a necessity.

CONCLUSION  

Europe’s relationship with China—and the U.S.—is a tightrope walk between economic opportunity and strategic risk. While China is a vital trade partner, its authoritarian rule, territorial ambitions, and history of economic coercion make full trust impossible. Meanwhile, a shifting U.S. foreign policy, especially under Trump, adds further uncertainty.

To navigate this landscape, Europe must take a balanced approach—engaging with China and the U.S. where necessary while diversifying trade through stronger ties with India, Japan, South Korea, and emerging markets. Reducing reliance on any single power will be key to maintaining economic stability and political autonomy in an increasingly unpredictable world.

References: 

• European Commision: EU-China Relations
• China Briefing: EU-China Relations After the 2024 European Elections
• NDTV World: China Building Military Facility 10 Times Bigger Than Pentagon: Report
• ECFR: From Brussels with leverage: How the EU is recalibrating its China strategy