EDITOR'S CORNER: The Shadow of Donald Trump

On January 20th, 2025, Donald J. Trump was sworn in for his second term as President of the United States. Unlike his first inauguration in 2017, which left much of the world uncertain about his leadership style, this time, global leaders, markets, and political analysts had a clearer sense of what to expect—yet significant uncertainties remain. From trade wars to shifting diplomatic alliances, Trump’s return has already begun reshaping the global order.  

Coinciding with this major political event, the World Economic Forum in Davos took place last week, bringing together leaders from business, politics, and finance to discuss pressing global challenges. However, much of the conversation at Davos was overshadowed by Trump’s renewed influence. 

As the world reacts to his return, many are asking: What will Trump’s second term mean for the future of geopolitics, global markets, and America’s role in international affairs?  

Donald Trump in his first term official picture

TRUMP'S FIRST TERM

Trump’s first term was one of the most polarizing in modern U.S. history. His leadership style drew criticism for being self-serving, blunt, and unpredictable. He showed little interest in engaging with traditional political processes or in-depth policy discussions, often preferring direct action and unilateral decisions.  

Trade was one of the defining issues of his presidency, particularly his aggressive stance toward China. His administration imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of goods, leading to economic disruptions and supply chain instability. At the same time, Trump successfully renegotiated NAFTA, replacing it with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), strengthening trade relations in North America.  

Trump’s foreign policy was, and continues to be, a disruptive force on the global stage. In his first term, he withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement—a decision reversed by Biden—only to pull out again upon his return to office. He also abandoned the Iran Nuclear Deal and frequently criticized NATO allies for not meeting their financial commitments. So far, it seems his second term will follow the same path.  

Trump also cultivated controversial relationships with authoritarian leaders such as North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Meanwhile, his strained relations with Mexico—fueled by his push to build a border wall—and his travel ban targeting several Muslim-majority countries sparked widespread protests and international condemnation.  

The latter part of his first term was dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic, and his handling of the crisis was met with sharp criticism. However, his administration implemented economic stimulus measures that helped accelerate recovery.  

Now, in his comeback, Trump has promised an even stronger "America First" approach, with widespread tariffs, tougher trade negotiations, and a preference for direct diplomatic deals over large-scale alliances.  

THE GLOBAL REACTION TO TRUMP'S COMEBACK

Trump’s electoral victory in November sent world leaders scrambling to recalibrate their strategies. Even those who had previously been critical of him quickly offered congratulations and emphasized their willingness to cooperate with his administration.  

Europe's Response and NATO Worries

In Europe, reactions have been measured but cautious. Leaders in Germany and France have expressed concerns over renewed trade tensions and the growing uncertainty surrounding NATO. Trump is now urging NATO allies to increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP—a demand that has sparked intense debate among European policymakers. While some officials see this as an opportunity for Europe to strengthen its own defense capabilities, others worry about the strain it could place on already tight budgets.

Beyond the NATO dispute, Trump has also raised fears of a potential trade war between Europe and the U.S., threatening high tariffs unless Europe increases its imports from America to match its exports.

China Tensions

China remains the biggest question mark in Trump’s second term. His administration has already signaled plans for extensive tariffs and possible export restrictions, setting the stage for a renewed trade conflict. Beijing, in response, has been preparing countermeasures, including strengthening its economic ties with Russia and exploring alternative trade partnerships.  

Another major concern is Taiwan. Trump’s second term may see a more confrontational approach toward China’s growing influence in the region, raising fears of escalating military tensions. Chinese officials are closely monitoring U.S. actions, preparing to respond aggressively to any perceived threats.  

Will there be peace for Russia and Ukraine?

Trump’s promise of achieving “peace in Ukraine within 24 hours” now appears increasingly unrealistic. European nations fear that he might strike a deal with Putin that heavily favors Russia, potentially forcing Ukraine into territorial concessions. If Trump scales back U.S. military and financial support for Ukraine, the balance of power in Eastern Europe could shift dramatically, leaving NATO and EU nations to reassess their role in the region.  

Instability in the Middle East

Trump’s return to office has also raised concerns in the Middle East. He remains a staunch ally of Israel and has taken an aggressive stance against Iran, which could lead to heightened tensions. His withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal in his first term exacerbated hostilities, and there are growing fears that the situation could escalate further.  

At the same time, Türkiye is asserting itself more aggressively in regional affairs, sometimes challenging the policies of European nations. Trump’s foreign policy decisions in the Middle East will likely shape the stability of the region for years to come.  

WHAT COMES NEXT? 

As Trump begins his second term, the world stands at a crossroads, facing a period of profound geopolitical uncertainty. Several pressing questions loom, each with the potential to reshape international relations and global stability.  

• Will Trump embrace diplomacy, or will his confrontational style escalate tensions and sow further instability?  
• How will global markets react to his economic policies, particularly as trade disputes and protectionist measures take center stage?  
• Can Europe counter U.S. unpredictability by strengthening its own political and military autonomy?  
• How will China and Russia exploit shifts in the balance of power, and what role will smaller but volatile states like North Korea and Iran play in this evolving landscape?  
• What kind of peace deal, if any, will Trump broker in Ukraine, and how will it reshape the region’s security?  

The answers to these questions will not only define the next four years but could set the course for the global order for decades to come.

CONCLUSION 

Donald Trump's return to the White House ushers in a new era of instability, relentless news cycles centered on his every move, and a shifting global landscape in politics, economics, and international alliances. His unwavering "America First" policy risks leaving the U.S. increasingly isolated, straining relationships with key allies and deepening geopolitical uncertainty. Supporters will hail it as strong nationalism and assertive diplomacy, while critics warn that America cannot thrive alone—especially without its European partners.

Meanwhile, Europe faces the challenge of navigating a more detached U.S., China braces for an impending trade war, and Russia watches closely, ready to exploit any shifts in American foreign policy that could grant it greater influence in Europe. The next four years promise turbulence and unpredictability. Trump's stance on trade, immigration, and climate policy will have lasting consequences well beyond his presidency. Whether his second term bolsters or undermines the global order will depend on how nations respond—but one thing is clear: the world is once again stepping into uncharted waters.