EDITOR'S CORNER: Is a Peace Deal on the Table for Ukraine?

In recent months and weeks, the topic of peace in Ukraine has been a focal point of international discussions. Initiatives have emerged from both Russia and Ukraine, as well as Ukraine's international partners. Notably, the substantial Ukraine Peace Summit took place in Switzerland in mid-June. Additionally, reports have surfaced of Vladimir Putin engaging in "peace" talks with Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian Prime Minister, who visited Russia covertly, bypassing EU protocols.

In this blog post, we will examine the peace proposals from each country and assess the current situation. Given the present circumstances, is peace between Russia and Ukraine a feasible prospect? Let's explore the details!

RUSSIA

Vladimir Putin has articulated on numerous occasions the conditions under which Russia would be willing to cease hostilities in Ukraine. These stipulations include:

1. Ukraine must withdraw from the territories that Russia claims to have annexed. This would enable Russia to fully govern these regions without opposition.
2. Ukraine must abandon its aspirations to join NATO, thereby aligning itself more closely with Russia's sphere of influence.
3. Ukraine must dismantle its functional military forces, leaving it unable to defend itself independently.

In essence, Putin's plan would lead to the dissolution of Ukraine as an independent and sovereign nation in its current form. He envisions a Ukraine transformed into an autocratic state, akin to Belarus, where a puppet regime is in place, subservient solely to the Kremlin. This would effectively eliminate Ukraine's autonomy and integrate it into Russia's dominion.

UKRAINE

On the opposing side, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has consistently asserted that Ukraine will not accept any peace agreement that involves ceding territories. According to Zelenskyy, such a concession is unacceptable to the Ukrainian people. The fundamental position of Ukraine in peace negotiations has been that Russia must withdraw all its military forces from Ukrainian territory. Furthermore, Russia should relinquish its claims of legitimate annexation over the Donbas region and Crimea.

Zelenskyy's vision for peace includes the restoration of Ukraine's 1991 borders, encompassing all disputed and occupied territories. This demand is reasonable for various reasons. The number one reason being that millions of Ukrainians residing in these temporarily occupied regions face dire consequences. They would either be displaced to unoccupied parts of Ukraine or, if they choose to remain, risk persecution and harsh treatment at the hands of Russian forces. Evidence already suggests that residents of occupied towns and cities, such as Mariupol, are coerced into accepting Russian passports under threat of being denied access to essential services like food, water, and medical care.

As the conflict grinds into its third year, fatigue is beginning to set in among the Ukrainian population. A recent poll published by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology revealed that approximately one-third of Ukrainians would now agree to cede some territory to Russia in exchange for a ceasefire, a significant increase from last year's figures.

Complicating the situation is the unpredictable and sluggish support from Western allies. It took the United States nearly four months to approve a US$60 billion aid package for Ukraine. Additionally, many Western leaders and citizens of democratic nations are concerned about the potential repercussions if former President Trump is re-elected, as his administration might halt funding for Ukraine. Another challenge is the slow delivery of military equipment to the front lines. Although financial aid is available, Ukraine often faces restrictions on purchasing or deploying necessary resources, such as striking military targets within Russia.

President Zelenskyy frequently emphasizes that Russia's ambitions will not be curtailed by a ceasefire. He warns that Putin would use any lull in fighting to rebuild his forces, potentially setting the stage for future aggression, possibly against a NATO member. This dire warning underscores the critical need for sustained and decisive international support to prevent further escalation and ensure Ukraine's sovereignty.

CHINA A CONDUIT OF PEACE?

Many heads of state have been sending messages to Beijing, urging China to step up and get involved in peace talks with Russia. The rationale behind this is China's significant influence on Putin, both as a larger and wealthier strategic partner and as a staunch Russian ally. Some, including President Zelenskyy, believe that the war could end promptly if Xi Jinping were to intervene.

China, however, has remained quiet and ambiguous about its intentions. Beijing refused to participate in the summit for peace in Ukraine held in Switzerland. Additionally, there is evidence suggesting that China is sending military aid to Russia, despite strong warnings from the West about potential heavy sanctions. Publicly, China has maintained a neutral stance, calling on both parties to cease hostilities.

In recent weeks, Ukraine has been reaching out to China in an effort to build friendly ties. On July 23rd and 24th, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. This marked the first visit by a Ukrainian delegation to Beijing since the war began. The purpose of the meeting was to engage in "deep and concentrated" discussions on peace negotiations with Russia.

This diplomatic effort by Ukraine is seen as a contingency plan, particularly in light of the possibility that Donald Trump might be elected as the next President of the United States. Trump's strategy to "end the war in 24 hours" involves forcing Ukraine to cede territories and make significant concessions to Russia. Concerns have also been raised by Trump's choice of Vice President, James Vance, who has exhibited a strong anti-Ukraine stance.

MY ANALYSIS

My analysis of the situation is that peace, in its current form, is not negotiable. The West must focus on arming Ukraine as extensively as possible and granting them greater freedom to effectively utilize their existing equipment. Conceding any territory to Russia could have devastating consequences for Europe.

Such an action would signal that, regardless of his methods, Putin will eventually achieve his objectives. This would embolden him and potentially other authoritarian leaders worldwide, leading them to believe that their aggressive actions will ultimately be rewarded. The global repercussions of yielding to such a leader are significant, as it would undermine international norms and embolden further acts of aggression.

We also have a social responsibility to ensure that the Ukrainian people are not subjected to further horrific conditions under Russian occupation. Reports from occupied territories indicate severe human rights abuses, including forced assimilation, denial of basic services, and persecution. Allowing these conditions to persist is unacceptable!

We have to understand that a broader conflict with Putin in Europe could precipitate a Third World War! The stakes are incredibly high, and it is imperative that the international community remains strong in its support for Ukraine. This includes not only providing military aid but also maintaining economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure on Russia. Only through a comprehensive and unwavering approach can we hope to restore peace and stability to the region, uphold international law, and protect the rights and freedoms of the Ukrainian people.

POINTS TO FOCUS ON

Our focus regarding Ukraine should be centered on ensuring they have adequate weaponry to sustain their defense. Additionally, it is imperative that we supply them with whatever equipment they require without imposing restrictive conditions. Historical precedent, dating back to the Cold War, has demonstrated that Russia responds only to strength and determination.

To elaborate further, providing sufficient weapons to Ukraine is not merely a tactical necessity but a strategic imperative. The Ukrainian forces are on the front lines defending not just their sovereignty but also the principles of democracy and international order. Ensuring they are well-equipped is crucial to countering Russian aggression effectively and deterring further escalations.

Unrestricted provision of necessary equipment means that Ukraine must have access to advanced military technology and intelligence capabilities. This includes air defense systems, anti-tank missiles, drones, and cybersecurity tools, among others. By removing bureaucratic and logistical barriers, we can expedite the delivery of these critical resources, thereby enhancing Ukraine’s defensive and offensive operations.

Our support must also include comprehensive training programs for Ukrainian troops to effectively utilize the provided equipment. This will ensure that the aid translates into tangible improvements on the battlefield, bolstering their resilience against a well-equipped adversary.

The lesson from the Cold War is clear: Russia respects and responds to displays of strength and unwavering resolve. This historical insight should guide our current policy. Demonstrating a robust and unified support for Ukraine not only pressures Russia but also reassures our allies and partners globally of our commitment to collective security.

Furthermore, our assistance should extend beyond military aid. Economic support and humanitarian aid are essential to sustain Ukraine’s economy and provide relief to its citizens. Strengthening Ukraine’s economic resilience can help mitigate the impacts of the war and support their long-term recovery and development.

Diplomatically, it is vital to maintain and strengthen the coalition of nations supporting Ukraine. This involves not only NATO and EU countries but also other global democracies. Coordinated sanctions against Russia, diplomatic isolation, and continuous international pressure are necessary to weaken Russia’s war effort and signal global condemnation of its actions.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, our strategy towards Ukraine must be multifaceted and resolute. Ensuring they have ample weaponry, providing unrestricted access to necessary equipment, offering comprehensive training, and maintaining diplomatic and economic support are all critical components. By demonstrating strength and determination, we can effectively counter Russian aggression and uphold the values of sovereignty, democracy, and international law.

The stakes are high, not just for Ukraine, but for the entire global order. A unified, unwavering commitment to supporting Ukraine is essential to preserving political stability in Western countries, and deterring future acts of aggression by the Russian government. Our response today will shape the geopolitical landscape for years to come, and it is imperative that we rise to the challenge with unwavering resolve and strategic foresight.