RUSSIA: Historic Prisoner Swap with the West

At the start of this month, on August 1st, 2024, we were taken by surprise by the news that the United States, along with Germany and other Western partners, successfully negotiated a historic prisoner exchange. Among the prisoners released by Russia were prominent opposition figures Vladimir Kara-Murza and Ilya Yashin, as well as the well-known Wall Street Journal journalist, Evan Gershkovich.

In this blog post, I'd like to share my reflections on the exchange and its aftermath. I'll also delve into the ongoing debate about the extent to which "ordinary Russians" should be held responsible for the war.

UNPRECENDENTED PRISONER SWAP 

I listened to their interview shortly after their release, which took place in Bonn, Germany. In the conversation, which you can watch here, both Ilya Yashin and Kara-Murza expressed a strong desire to return to Russia someday. Yashin vehemently protested being deported to the West against his will, reading a statement he had written in prison where he refused to consent to leaving Russia and demanded to remain in his homeland. Kara-Murza's remarks were somewhat more restrained, but the interview still left a bitter impression on staunch Ukrainian supporters.

My thoughts on this prisoner exchange are rather mixed. I'm glad that they are free and alive, especially for Vladimir Kara-Murza. I was sure that he would be next to be assassinated after Navalny, by Putin's FSB terrorists. However, that was not the case. He is now back with his family, in a Western country, safe from Putin's clutches. Or so we hope! Same with Ilya Yashin, even if he didn't want to leave. With them being free, it can give a small hope that Putin's brutal regime can be overturned because there is now a functional opposition for Kremlin. But, and this is the big BUT, is that so?

From the interview with Kara-Murza, Yashin, and fellow political activist Andrei Pivovarov, I got the strong impression that these men are deeply traumatized and struggling with survivor's guilt, yet they still hold a profound sense of national pride. They emphasized that the West should not blame ordinary Russian citizens, as many do not support Putin's war in Ukraine. Instead, they argued that the war is a Kremlin project and that sanctions and other measures should target Putin and his inner circle, rather than punishing the entire population.

Before I go any further, I will write a bit about who Yashin and Kara-Murza are, and why are they so important in Russian opposition. I know that there were 14 other people released along with these two, for 8 Russian agents. I'm not familiar with the other names, outside of one other name. Oleg Orlov, who was co-chair of the human rights organization, Memorial. He is also another person who did not want to leave Russia but had to due to the swap.

VLADIMIR KARA-MURZA

Vladimir Kara-Murza is a prominent Russian political activist, journalist, and outspoken critic of the Kremlin. Born on September 7, 1981, Kara-Murza has dedicated his career to advocating for democratic reforms and human rights in Russia. He has worked closely with opposition leader Boris Nemtsov and played a significant role in promoting the Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act, which sanctions Russian officials involved in human rights abuses. Kara-Murza has also been a vocal critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, condemning his administration's authoritarian policies and systemic corruption. 

Unfortunately, Vladimir Putin tried to have him killed multiple times. He was involved in two suspected poisonings in 2015 and 2017. These attempts had left him in a very critical and sensitive condition. Despite these attempts, he still authored numerous articles and has given speeches around the world, highlighting the need for international pressure on the Russian government to uphold democratic principles and human rights. Kara-Murza served as a vice-chairman of Open Russia, an organization founded by exiled businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky to promote democracy and civil society in Russia. He was also the founding chairman of the Nemtsov Foundation and a vice-chair of the Free Russia Foundation. 

In April 2022, Kara-Murza was arrested in Russia on charges of disobeying police orders. Shortly thereafter, authorities added charges of treason and discrediting the army. These charges were widely condemned by humanitarian organizations, such as Amnesty International, as politically motivated due to his anti-war views. In April 2023, one year after his arrest, Kara-Murza was sentenced to 25 years in prison. However, he was eventually released as part of a prisoner exchange. During his incarceration, Kara-Murza received several awards, including the 2024 Pulitzer Prize for Commentary. This was for the articles he wrote for The Washington Post from his cell. 

Vladimir Kara-Murza

ILYA YASHIN

Ilya Yashin is another prominent figure in the Russian opposition movement, known for his steadfast criticism of Vladimir Putin and his administration. Born on June 29, 1983, in Moscow, Yashin has been a long-serving opposition politician and activist deeply involved in Russia's pro-democracy movements. He has worked closely with other notable opposition leaders, such as Boris Nemtsov and Alexei Navalny, and co-founded the Solidarnost movement in 2008 to unite various opposition groups in Russia. Additionally, he has held leadership positions within the People's Freedom Party (PARNAS).

Yashin's political career has been defined by his efforts to expose corruption and advocate for democratic reforms, often at great personal risk. Throughout his career, he has faced significant harassment and persecution from the government, including multiple arrests for organizing and participating in anti-government protests. His activism has made him a target for smear campaigns and legal troubles. Despite these challenges, Yashin remains a resilient and influential figure in Russian politics, continuing to push for transparency, accountability, and democratic governance. 

In June 2022, Yashin was arrested under new censorship laws, accused of spreading fake news about the Russian Armed Forces. In December 2022, he was sentenced to eight and a half years in prison. During this prisoner exchange, Yashin's name surfaced unexpectedly, considered after several other candidates.

Ilya Yashin

WHO ELSE WAS SWAPPED?

The other people who were swapped were: 

• Evan Gershkovich - a writer for the Wall Street Journal who travelled to Russia after the war started. He was arrested in May 2023 and sentenced this year, on July 19th. He was arrested on spy charges, and accused of working with the CIA. 
• Alsu Kurmasheva - Another journalist who worked as an editor for RFE/RL's Tatar-Bashkir Service. She was arrested in June 2023 while visiting her family in Tatarstan, an oblast in central Russia. She has dual citizenship Russian and US. At first, she was arrested with not declaring her US passport. Kurmasheva was released but banned from leaving Russia. After that, she was detained again and accused of being a foreign agent and spreading fake information about the war. She was also sentenced on July 19th to 6 and a half years in prison in a closed door trial. 
• Paul Whelan - A former U.S. Marine and corporate security executive, was arrested in Moscow in December 2018, accused of receiving classified information on a flash drive he believed contained vacation photos. In June 2020, he was convicted of espionage by a Russian court and sentenced to 16 years in prison, which he is serving in Mordovia. The U.S. government and Whelan's family have condemned his conviction as unjust, designating him as wrongfully detained.
• Oleg Orlov - The 71-year-old co-chairman of the now-outlawed Nobel Peace Prize-winning Memorial human rights center and one of Russia's most experienced and respected human rights activists with a history of advocacy dating back to the Soviet era. He was convicted and sentenced to 30 months in prison for repeatedly discrediting the Russian military. A charge stemming from an article in which he condemned the Ukraine invasion, warned of Russia's slide into fascist totalitarianism, and described the war as a severe blow to Russia's future.
• Kevin Lik - A dual German-Russian citizen from Adygea, was sentenced to four years in prison in December 2023 for treason after being found guilty of photographing a local military base and emailing the images to a foreign government representative. He was 18 years old at the time of his conviction following a closed-door trial.
• Aleksandra "Sasha" Skochilenko - A St. Petersburg artist, was sentenced to seven years in prison in November 2022 for protesting the Ukraine invasion by replacing grocery store tags with anti-war messages. She maintained that her statements, which included criticism of Putin and the Russian military, were truthful, questioning why the state feared "five tiny pieces of paper."
• Andrei Pivovarov - Former executive director of the pro-democracy Open Russia movement, was sentenced to four years in prison in July 2022 for leading an "undesirable organization." Declared a political prisoner by Memorial, his case highlights the Kremlin's use of laws to suppress political dissent and control NGOs funded from abroad.
• Ksenia Fadeyeva - A former lawmaker and head of Aleksei Navalny's regional office in Tomsk, was sentenced to nine years in prison in December 2023 for organizing activities of an extremist group. Her lawyer condemned the ruling as unjust, noting she had ceased involvement with Navalny's organization before it was declared extremist, and her appeal was rejected in May, leading to her losing her city council mandate in June.
• Demuri Voronin - A political scientist a Russian-German national, was sentenced to 13 years and three months for high treason in March 2023, after being arrested in Moscow in 2021 just before his departure to Berlin. The case was classified, but Voronin was linked to journalist Ivan Safronov's high treason case, and he owned a consulting company in Moscow that worked with prominent journalists.
• Patrick Schoebel - A German national, was arrested at Pulkovo Airport in St. Petersburg for allegedly possessing and smuggling cannabis gummies and jailed in Moscow. Facing up to seven years in prison, he claimed the gummies were for restful sleep on long flights, but Russian tests indicated they contained a banned substance, and his trial status was unclear at the time of a prisoner swap.
• German Moyzhes - A dual German-Russian citizen and lawyer who advocates for pedestrian and cyclist-friendly streets, was arrested for treason in late May while cycling in St. Petersburg and detained in Lefortovo prison. His trial status was unclear at the time of a prisoner exchange.
• Lilia Chanysheva - Former head of Navalny's Ufa branch, was sentenced to 7 ½ years in prison in June 2023 for creating an extremist community and inciting extremism, with her term later extended by two years for being too lenient. Before her conviction, Chanysheva described her case as absurdly political, and Navalny, who died in prison in February 2024, praised her resilience and inspirational impact during his testimony at her trial.
• Vadim Ostanin - Former head of Navalny's Barnaul branch, was arrested in December 2021 and charged with organizing an extremist community and promoting Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation. He was sentenced to nine years in prison in July 2023 for activities deemed "legal political work" by Navalny's supporters and was designated a political prisoner by Memorial.
• Rico Krieger - A German citizen sentenced to death in Belarus in June for mercenary activity and other charges, was pardoned by Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka on July 30 without further explanation. Krieger, previously a paramedic and special security officer, was reportedly connected to the Kalinouski Regiment, though the group denies involvement; he has a young son living in Germany.

WHO WHERE THEY SWAPPED FOR?

The list above contains the names of many innocent individuals who were unjustly persecuted by Russia's oppressive and authoritarian regime. On the other hand, the eight people exchanged for their freedom were mostly spies and criminals, convicted in their home countries for espionage and posing threats to national security.

Two cases stand out: the so-called "Argentinean couple," who were actually Russian operatives living undercover in Slovenia, and Vadim Krasikov. I won't list all the names here, as those who betray and commit crimes do not deserve additional recognition.

Vadim Krasikov, also known as Vadim Sokolov, is a former Russian FSB officer who was serving a life sentence in Germany for the 2019 murder of ex-Chechen commander Zelimkhan Khangoshvili in Berlin. Krasikov, a high-ranking member of the FSB’s Vympel unit, was arrested after shooting Khangoshvili while riding a bicycle and attempting to escape. Investigations by Bellingcat, The Insider, and Der Spiegel have connected him to other FSB-related crimes. German prosecutors claimed that Moscow ordered the assassination because of Khangoshvili’s history as a separatist leader and his attempt to seek asylum in Germany. Krasikov has been labeled as Putin's personal assassin, which was the driving reason behind his exchange.

During the negotiations for this swap, Putin was reportedly very determined to secure Krasikov’s return, willing to make significant concessions. Dmitry Peskov, the Press Secretary of the President of Russia, commented that Krasikov had previously worked on Putin's private security detail. Other sources suggest that Krasikov and Putin share close personal connections through mutual acquaintances. Putin viewed Krasikov as someone who acted in the interests of Russia and, as a former FSB officer himself, was committed to bringing him back, especially given Krasikov’s willingness to "sacrifice" for his country.

Vadim Krasikov

Artyom Dultsev and Anna Dultseva, operating under the aliases Ludwig Gisch and Maria Rosa Mayer Munos, were arrested in Slovenia in December 2022 for espionage and document forgery. The couple, who had been living in Slovenia since 2017, were involved in supporting Russian sleeper agents within the EU. They were caught while transmitting messages to the other Russian agents. The tip came from an English source. On July 31, they were sentenced to over 18 months in prison, followed by expulsion from the country.

These cases stand out because Krasikov's brutal crime was so severe that German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock reportedly opposed his release, with the swap only moving forward due to the strong insistence of the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz. As for the Dultsevs, their role as Russian operatives is reminiscent of Cold War-era spies infiltrating the West, a theme popularized by the TV show "The Americans." It is especially striking that their children were unaware of their true identities until they arrived in Russia, where they were met by Putin himself, leaving the children confused about who he was.

WHAT ARE MY FULL THOUGHTS ON THIS EXCHANGE? 

My initial reaction was quite skeptical. As I mentioned before, I, along with many others, believed that Vladimir Kara-Murza would die in prison; he himself thought he was a dead man walking. His health was severely deteriorated, and the regime was strongly opposed to him, as were other prisoners who were released. Many of these figures are prominent opposition leaders.

Experts suggest that this exchange indicates Russia's willingness to negotiate with Western parties, showing that Putin understands the enduring nature of political diplomacy. Now that they are free, the released prisoners must be very cautious about choosing their next country of residence. Some have expressed a desire to return to Russia as soon as possible.

In my view, it’s unlikely that they will go home anytime soon. Doing so would reflect poorly on the countries that rescued them, potentially exposing social discord within Western societies. I believe these prominent opposition figures should continue their struggle. Personally, I feel a glimmer of hope following their release, as it suggests there is still a chance for change in Russia. However, only time will tell if these individuals are genuinely committed to challenging the current leadership or if they are merely echoing lofty ideals with no real substance behind them.

Another point worth considering is the concern that this exchange might encourage Putin to arrest more Westerners visiting Russia, using them as leverage against the West. While this is a valid fear, I don't believe this exchange will significantly change Putin's approach. The Russian regime has been detaining Western citizens for decades, using them as political pawns in its broader strategy. This exchange doesn't introduce a new tactic; it simply continues a long-standing practice. Putin's regime has always seen value in holding foreign nationals as bargaining chips, and this latest swap doesn't increase that threat—it merely highlights a reality that has existed for years.

WHAT ABOUT THE "NORMAL" RUSSIANS?

I would like to address the point raised by the recently released dissidents that sanctions and other measures taken by the West against Russia should target Putin and his regime specifically, rather than the general Russian population.

This raises an important question: to what extent is the general population responsible for the war? In my view, it is not appropriate to hold ordinary civilians accountable to the same degree as the government and military. The Geneva Conventions exist in part to protect civilians, recognizing that they are often caught up in conflicts they did not choose. However, this does not absolve them of all responsibility.

In the case of Russia, the population bears some responsibility for the indifference toward the actions of their regime and their so-called "President." This apathy may stem from a lack of political interest, or perhaps from fear, given the harsh consequences of protesting. I understand that daily life in Russia can be extremely challenging, and that many civilians are more focused on survival than on what happens in the Kremlin. Nevertheless, they still bear responsibility for allowing Putin to remain in power and for their indifferent attitude toward the war.

I hold an especially high level of responsibility for Russians living in the West. These individuals do not face the same struggles as those in Russia, and they are exposed to the realities of the war and the true nature of the Kremlin. While there are many Russians who are ashamed and horrified by what is happening in Ukraine, too many remain afraid to speak out, protest, or contribute to efforts supporting Ukraine. Then there are those who cling to nationalistic views, blaming the West for the situation. This kind of delusional thinking is deeply concerning.

The reality is that Russia will not change unless the Russian people choose to make that change. No one in the West can exert sufficient influence on Russian politics, culture, or beliefs to effect such a transformation.

CONCLUSION 

In conclusion, the release of prominent opposition figures like Vladimir Kara-Murza and others marks both a significant diplomatic development and a potential turning point in Russia’s political landscape. Their freedom suggests that negotiations with Western powers remain a viable strategy for influencing Russia, but it also highlights the ongoing challenges these individuals face in their new circumstances. 

The dissidents’ call for sanctions to focus specifically on Putin and his regime, rather than the general Russian population, adds a critical dimension to the discourse. As these figures decide their next steps, including the possibility of returning to Russia, their actions will be crucial in determining whether they can drive meaningful change or simply reflect the broader struggles within Russian and global politics. 

Ultimately, their continued dedication to democratic values and political reform will reveal whether they can truly effect change or remain symbols of a deeper, unresolved conflict.

Reference: 

• The Guardian: Kremlin admits Vadim Krasikov is a Russian state assassin
• IFHR: Russia: Human rights defender Oleg Orlov released
• Al Jazeera: Who Are The 24 Prisoners Who Were Swapped In U.S.-Russia Deal?