HUNGARY: A Closer Look at Viktor Orbán

Since 2010, Viktor Orbán has ruled Hungary with an iron fist, leaving a profound impact on both his country and Europe. A trained lawyer, Orbán has become known for his staunchly right-wing positions, particularly his hardline anti-immigration stance. His leadership style and policies have polarized public opinion, with people either passionately supporting or vehemently opposing him.

In this blog post, we delve into who Viktor Orbán is, exploring his background, the factors that shaped his views, and the strategies he has used to maintain his grip on Hungary for over a decade. We'll also examine Hungary's current six-month chairmanship of the EU Council. 

Viktor Orbán (Copyright: Alan Santos/PR)

EARLY LIFE 

Before delving into his political views and beliefs, let's take a moment to step back into his past. Viktor Mihály Orbán was born on May 31, 1963, about one hour out of Budapest. He grew up in a modest, rural environment, with the family home in Felcsút lacking running water. The village was very small. His father was an agricultural engineer and a member of the Communist Party, while his mother attended college to become a special needs teacher. According to Orbán, his father used to beat him. However, he also admitted that he was an unruly and rebellious child, making him difficult to control. Orbán has two younger brothers, both of whom are businessmen.

Orbán's academic journey began in Székesfehérvár, where he attended local schools before moving to Budapest to pursue higher education. As a child, Viktor Orbán was a member of the Young Communist League and also played football on his local team. After graduating from high school, he completed his military service. While there, he got into trouble and was even jailed several times for indiscipline. Orbán has said that it was during his military training that he began to change his views on communism.

In 1983, Orbán enrolled at Eötvös Loránd University, one of Hungary's most prestigious institutions, to study law. It was during this time, at university, that Orbán became deeply involved in political activism, joining a small group of like-minded students who were dissatisfied with the communist regime that controlled Hungary at the time.

On March 30, 1988, Viktor Orbán, along with fellow students and activists such as István Stumpf, Gábor Fodor, and László Kövér, founded the Alliance of Young Democrats (Fiatal Demokraták Szövetsége, FIDESZ) at the Lawyers' Special College of Social Sciences. This liberal-nationalist youth movement aimed to openly challenge the Hungarian Young Communist League, whose members were prohibited from joining. Fidesz advocated for liberal democracy and free markets. Orbán's leadership in the anti-communist student movement gained him significant attention, and he quickly rose to prominence as a spokesperson for a new generation of Hungarians demanding political reform.

While at university, Orbán met his wife, Anikó Lévai. They were married in 1986 and have five children together. 

Viktor Orbán and his wife, Anikó Lévai

POLITICAL RISE

On June 16, 1989, Orbán gained national recognition with a speech in Heroes' Square, Budapest, during the reburial of Imre Nagy and other martyrs of the 1956 Hungarian Revolution. In this speech, he called for free elections and the withdrawal of Soviet troops, bringing Fidesz to the forefront of Hungarian politics. That summer, Orbán participated in the opposition round table talks, representing Fidesz alongside László Kövér, and by October 1989, Fidesz had transitioned into a political party.

In September 1989, Orbán accepted a research fellowship at Pembroke College, Oxford, supported by the Soros Foundation, which had employed him part-time since April 1988. Under the mentorship of Zbigniew Pełczyński, he focused on studying the idea of civil society in European political thought. Around this time, Orbán unsuccessfully ran for leadership within Fidesz in Budapest, losing to Gábor Fodor. By January 1990, he decided to leave his studies at Oxford and returned to Hungary with his family to campaign for a seat in the country’s first post-communist parliamentary elections.

Orbán secured the top position on the Fidesz candidate list and was elected as a Member of Parliament in the April 1990 elections. He then served as the leader of Fidesz's parliamentary group until May 1993. On April 18, 1993, Orbán became the first president of Fidesz, steering the party from a radical liberal student organization toward a center-right people's party. This shift led to a significant split within its ranks, with members like Fodor leaving to join the Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ).

In the 1994 parliamentary elections, Fidesz barely passed the 5% threshold, but Orbán was elected as an MP and chaired the Committee on European Integration Affairs between 1994 and 1998. Under his leadership, Fidesz adopted the name "Hungarian Civic Party" in 1995 and grew to dominate the right-wing political spectrum.

Experts believe that Orbán began to understand that maintaining power would require a shift away from liberalism and a gradual move toward more right-wing positions. At the time, Hungary was governed by a liberal-socialist party, and many critics doubted that such a transformation was possible. Despite these warnings, Orbán pressed on with reshaping his party.

Viktor Orbán as a young man demanding democracy and freedom for Hungary (Copyright: Szalay Zoltán)

A PRIME MINISTER AT 35 YEARS OF AGE

In 1998, Viktor Orbán formed a coalition government with the Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) and the Independent Smallholders' Party (FKGP), winning the parliamentary elections with 42% of the national vote. At 35, Orbán became Hungary’s second-youngest prime minister and the first post-Cold War leader in Eastern and Central Europe who had not been a member of a communist party. His government quickly initiated radical reforms, reorganizing ministries, centralizing social security payments, and strengthening the prime minister’s office. During his first premiership, István Stumpf served as chief of staff from 1998 to 2000.

The new administration faced significant opposition, particularly after introducing changes to the Hungarian Parliament's schedule and attempting to replace key officials with partisan figures. Tensions escalated as Orbán’s government clashed with opposition parties and the Budapest City Council, leading to accusations of arrogance and aggressive governance. Despite criticism, Orbán maintained his position, though his administration was marred by several scandals, including a bribery case and accusations of questionable business dealings by two state secretaries.

Orbán's economic policies focused on reducing taxes, inflation, and unemployment while maintaining steady GDP growth and narrowing the budget deficit. Although the government achieved some economic successes, such as lowering inflation and reducing the national debt, negotiations for Hungary’s entry into the European Union slowed. The government also faced challenges in addressing unresolved issues in health care and agriculture, while managing the impact of NATO membership, which required military modernization and involvement in the Kosovo crisis.

In foreign policy, Orbán's government attracted international attention with the "status law," aimed at providing benefits to ethnic Hungarian minorities in neighboring countries. The law sparked controversy, particularly in Romania and Slovakia, which viewed it as interference in their domestic affairs. However, diplomatic efforts led to agreements that allowed Hungary to maintain its stance on the world stage.

PART OF THE OPPOSITION

As Hungary was preparing for the 2002 elections, public support for political parties waned. Fidesz and the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) attracted around 26% of the electorate. However, the reality was that Orbán's coalition lost to the MSZP. They  formed a government with the liberal Alliance of Free Democrats. The election saw a record 70.5% voter turnout, and only four parties, including the Hungarian Democratic Forum, managed to secure seats in the National Assembly. Meanwhile, MIÉP challenged the election results, alleging fraud and demanding a recount, though these claims were dismissed by the Central Elections Committee and international observers.

Orbán was shocked by the election loss, as he believed the country had been performing well during his first term as prime minister. There had been positive developments in the economy, employment, and other key areas. This defeat had a profound impact on him, leading him to adopt more right-wing positions and gradually shifting Fidesz in that direction as well. In the 2004 European elections, Fidesz secured a narrow victory over the ruling Hungarian Socialist Party, winning 13 seats in the European Parliament.

Orbán continued to lead Fidesz into the 2006 parliamentary elections but once again failed to secure a majority. However, his leadership of the party was solidified after the ruling Socialist-Liberal coalition encountered significant challenges. In 2006, Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány faced a major scandal when a private speech was leaked in which he admitted that his party had lied to win the election and had accomplished nothing of value during their previous four-year term. This controversy bolstered Orbán's standing within Fidesz, leading to his re-election as party president in 2007.

Budapest, the capital of Hungary and seat of power for the government (Copyright: JStolp, Pixabay)

 A SECOND TERM AND BEYOND

In the 2010 Hungarian parliamentary elections, Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party won 52.7% of the vote but secured a 68% majority of parliamentary seats, enabling Orbán to push through a new constitution in 2011. This constitution emphasized traditional values, nationalism, and Christianity while reducing the number of parliamentary seats from 386 to 199. His government also implemented significant economic changes, including a flat income tax and pension reforms, reflecting a pragmatic approach to governance.

In 2014, Orbán's Fidesz won another parliamentary majority, although their share of the national vote decreased to 44.5%. Orbán then introduced the concept of an "illiberal democracy" in Hungary, marking a shift from Western liberal norms. His administration faced protests over perceived corruption and controversial policies like a proposed internet tax. During the 2015 European migrant crisis, Orbán's government took a hardline stance by building a border barrier and opposing EU-wide migrant quotas.

Orbán's third government, elected in 2018, continued its right-wing populist policies, with a strong focus on anti-immigration rhetoric and preserving Hungary's national identity. During this period, Orbán further consolidated power, including gaining control over several universities. He also resisted EU pressure regarding rule-of-law concerns, positioning himself as a defender of Hungary's sovereignty against foreign influence.

In 2022, Orbán's Fidesz party won yet another parliamentary majority despite concerns over his close ties with Russia. Following the election, Orbán stirred controversy with remarks about racial purity, later attempting to clarify that he was speaking about cultural differences. His government continues to face challenges, particularly in energy policy, as Hungary's reliance on Russian energy supplies has come under scrutiny. This is what we will explore next.

POLICY WHEN IT COMES TO UKRAINE 

Having examined Orbán's early life and political career, we now turn to his recent actions on the international stage. Orbán's position on Ukraine has consistently leaned towards pro-Russian sentiments. While not overtly anti-Ukrainian, his stance has been primarily at odds with the European Union's policies. As the EU rallied behind Ukraine during the full-scale invasion, Orbán became a significant obstacle in Brussels, particularly when he blocked a 50 billion Euro aid package at the end of 2023. It took the EU over two months to persuade Orbán to relent.

In July, coinciding with Hungary's assumption of the EU Council Presidency, Orbán made headlines with a series of controversial diplomatic visits. He first traveled to Kyiv, where he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. However, his subsequent visit to Moscow, where he held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, raised eyebrows across Europe. Orbán's diplomatic tour continued with stops in China and the United States, where he met with former President Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago residence.

Orbán justified his actions to EU leaders and NATO allies by claiming his mission was one of peace. He asserted that his objective was to engage with all relevant parties to facilitate "peace" in Ukraine. Orbán even proposed a ceasefire and accelerated peace talks, despite not being authorized by the EU to act as a representative in these matters. His actions were in direct conflict with the EU's requirement that all member states adhere to a unified stance.

Meanwhile, Hungary has continued to purchase Russian gas, even opting to pay in rubles, a move that defies the EU's broader strategy to reduce dependency on Russian energy sources.

These recent developments highlight Orbán's increasingly assertive and independent approach on the global stage, further straining Hungary's relationship with the European Union. 

Orbán with Putin in July 2024 (Copyright: Valeriy Sharifulin, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo)

DOMESTIC POLICIES     

In Hungary, Orbán has increasingly embraced pro-natalist views, implementing policies designed to encourage population growth. The Hungarian parliament has introduced reforms such as tax cuts for families with three or more children. Women who graduate from university and either adopt or have a child within two years of finishing their studies have their student loans forgiven. Married couples receive housing and car benefits that increase with the number of children they have.

Alongside these pro-natalist policies, Orbán has also tightened restrictions on abortion. Hungary enacted a law requiring women to listen to the fetal heartbeat before continuing with the procedure, a move that has sparked considerable debate. However, no other changes have been made to the country's relatively liberal abortion laws, as such changes would likely be unpopular with voters.

Economically, Orbán introduced lower tax rates for companies and successfully attracted foreign investment, leading to a significant reduction in Hungary's unemployment rate—from around 11% in the early 2010s to the current 3.61%. Additionally, Orbán has initiated changes to the education system aimed at "re-Christianizing" the country. Many state-funded schools have been privatized, with the church taking a central role in providing education within these institutions.

However, these domestic policies have been accompanied by a sharp decline in media freedom. The Hungarian government has imposed increasing restrictions and bureaucratic hurdles on journalists, severely limiting their ability to report freely and hold the government accountable.

Another area of concern is the state of LGBTQ+ rights in Hungary. In 2020, the recognition of transgender individuals was effectively ended, and the government has since proposed legislation to restrict advertisements featuring LGBTQ+ content. Orbán's rhetoric has grown increasingly hostile, as evidenced by his 2023 statement accusing the European Union of conducting an "LGBTQ+ offensive."

These developments reflect Orbán's broader agenda of reshaping Hungarian society according to his conservative vision, often at the expense of civil liberties and minority rights. As Hungary continues on this path, the implications for its relationship with the European Union and its internal social fabric remain significant and deeply contentious.

SPIES IN THE EU 

In early July, the Orbán administration announced plans to expand a program that facilitates simplified work and residency permits for third-country nationals to include Russian and Belarussian citizens. This extension of the so-called "national card" initiative has sparked significant concern among EU and Member State officials. 

The national card is a long-term residence permit in Hungary, allowing third-country nationals to work and reside for up to two years, with extensions of up to three years. Unlike a short-term Schengen visa, it is not regulated by EU secondary law. Hungary, through Act XC of 2023, can designate which countries’ citizens are eligible, initially including Serbian and Ukrainian nationals, and later extending to several others, including Russia and Belarus. While privileged entry regimes are common, concerns arise due to the national card's lack of clear security checks. This leaves a lot of discretion to Hungarian authorities, which raises questions about the policy's security implications and legality.

Critics argue that this policy could potentially open a backdoor for individuals intent on carrying out hostile activities within Schengen Member States. In response, Commissioner Ylva Johansson has penned a letter to Hungary’s interior minister, seeking further details on the policy to allow the European Commission to “take appropriate actions.” This warning has been echoed more explicitly by other prominent EU figures, who have even suggested suspending Hungary's Schengen membership.

MY THOUGHTS ON ORBAN

In my opinion, Viktor Orbán is clearly intelligent, capable of charm, has a signature sarcastic humor, and possesses a high level of education and a sharp mind for history. However, he is also on the wrong side of democratic principles, which conflicts with the values upheld by the European Union and NATO. This suggests that Hungary might be out of sync with these Western alliances.

It would not be as significant an issue if Hungary were not part of these two democratic and Western alliances. In that case, Orbán could pursue his dictatorial and authoritarian tendencies without much concern. It is evident that he is the type of leader that a segment of the Hungarian population supports, and that is their prerogative. However, the problem arises because Hungary’s alignment with the EU and NATO introduces risks, including concerns that Hungary might be compromising sensitive information or allowing Russia to spy on NATO.

I believe that Viktor Orbán represents a potential threat that the EU and NATO need to guard against to protect other member states.

Another issue is Orbán’s own admission that he feels more at ease with authoritarian figures like those in Kazakhstan and Russia. This might be because he feels marginalized by Western leaders. While it is true that Western leaders could engage with him more, the current reality is that Western allies deeply distrust Hungary and are unlikely to extend any leniency. Orbán has proven to be untrustworthy by continuing to collaborate with Russia.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, Viktor Orbán's leadership embodies a blend of intelligence, charm, and historical insight, yet it stands in stark contrast to the democratic values upheld by the European Union and NATO. His governance has ushered in significant domestic changes, including pro-natalist policies and economic reforms, but has also led to a decline in media freedom, LGBTQ+ rights, and increased alignment with authoritarian regimes. These actions reveal a leader reshaping Hungarian society according to a conservative vision, often at odds with Western democratic norms.

Orbán’s tenure has strained Hungary’s relationship with Western alliances, raising concerns about their reliability and security. His controversial policies and alignment with Russia have fostered distrust among EU and NATO members, highlighting the challenge of maintaining democratic principles within international frameworks. As Hungary navigates its path under Orbán’s rule, the implications for its role in the EU and NATO, as well as its internal cohesion, remain critical, underscoring the need for vigilance to uphold democratic values and regional stability.

References: 

• BBC: Who is Viktor Orban, Hungarian PM with 14-year grip on power?
• The Brussel Times: What the hell happened to Viktor Orbán?
• Institut Montaigne: Portrait of Viktor Orbán - Prime Minister of Hungary
• Politico: Viktor Orbán, Hungary 
• Verfassungsblog: Could Hungary be suspended from Schengen?