EDITOR'S CORNER: Urging Europe to Confront Putin's Aggression

The war in Ukraine has claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of soldiers on both sides, displacing millions of Ukrainians and causing billions of dollars in damage to Ukrainian infrastructure. Some cities lie in ruins, necessitating complete reconstruction. Notably, battles around Bakhmut and Avdiivka saw a grim toll, with up to 1,000 Russian soldiers perishing daily and a staggering 20,000 losing their lives each month. Russia, too, has suffered substantial losses, with billions of dollars worth of equipment destroyed.

The repercussions extend beyond the battlefield. Russia finds itself grappling with a return to a Soviet-era reality, marked by soaring and uncontrollable costs, and long queues for basic necessities. Shops are predominantly empty, Western products have been largely purged from Russian commerce.

In this blog post, we delve into an overview of the ongoing war, dispelling common misconceptions and emphasizing the crucial importance of Western allies continuing to provide support to Ukraine, regardless of the circumstances.

RUSSIA BACK TO THE SOVIET ERA

All this expense and destruction, but for what purpose? The reason lies in Vladimir Putin's desire to obliterate Ukraine and its culture. This intent became glaringly evident in his lengthy 6,000-word essay written in July 2021, preceding the war. Ukraine's history is marred by Russian suppression, reaching the extreme of prohibiting the use of their own language. The systematic repression of the Ukrainian language by the Russian Empire commenced with the conquest of a significant part of Ukraine (Left-bank Ukraine) in 1654–1667 and continued after the dismantling of the Cossack Hetmanate and the Zaporozhian Sich in 1764 and 1775.

On the battlefield, what unfolds is a systematic abuse of power, a notorious trait of the Russian army, and a series of ill-informed decisions cascading from the Russian President himself down to the lowest ranks. Russian soldiers frequently lament about diminishing food rations, subpar equipment, and deplorable conditions. The most grievous complaint revolves around being used as targets in the Russian "meat grinders." These soldiers hold little significance for Putin, often comprising released convicts, minorities, or refugees and immigrants who don't matter much to the Russian population as a whole. They are merely regarded as "bodies" for the war, or as Russians term it, the "special military operation."

COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT PUTIN

The single most significant mistake and misconception that Western leaders make about Vladimir Putin is thinking that he will be content and cease waging wars if Ukraine negotiates the current Russian-occupied territories. This is a fallacy because Vladimir Putin is a warmongering despot with ambitions to rebuild the Soviet empire. He views himself on par with historical figures such as Peter the Great, a sentiment he has reiterated numerous times during his decades in power.

The most plausible scenario is that he will either invade Moldova, try to test NATO by threatening one of the Baltic countries, or redirect his attention towards Georgia, Kazakhstan, or Uzbekistan. His relentless pursuit will persist until he has reconstructed the former Soviet Union according to his preferences.

The West, specifically NATO, must respond decisively and promptly to Russia's actions in Ukraine. This sends a potent and unified message that Allies will not tolerate such behavior. Furthermore, 2024 is a pivotal year due to critical elections. The United States faces significant Presidential Elections, with a high likelihood of Trump being re-elected. Simultaneously, Finland has Presidential elections, and England is slated for general elections at the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025. The European Union also has elections for a new EU Parliament in the early part of June of this year. Also, India will hold their general elections in between April and May 2024. 

DEFENSE STRATEGIES

Thinking that we can engage in dialogue with Russia has proven ineffective even before the war in Ukraine began. In January and early February 2022, numerous Western world leaders attempted negotiations with Vladimir Putin, urging him not to initiate a war in Ukraine. Unfortunately, this tactic proved fruitless, and the invasion commenced on February 24, 2022. As we approach the two-year anniversary of this tragic event, it is clear that alternative approaches are necessary.

The most effective strategy in dealing with a despot like Putin is to provide Ukraine with all the military equipment it requires, without bureaucratic hurdles. Asserting that certain red line requirements will not be breached is futile, given the repeated violations by both parties in the past.

The West requires a multifaceted approach. Firstly, engaging with Russia on the battlefield — by aiding Ukraine in defending and reclaiming its territory up to the 1991 borders, including the retaking of Crimea. Secondly, confiscating Russia's overseas funds and sanctioned wealth, redirecting them to Ukraine for post-war reconstruction. Thirdly, the West must demonstrate a robust and unified strategy, making it clear that NATO will defend every inch of its territory and is adequately prepared for any situation.

This comprehensive approach sends a strong message to Russia, emphasizing that they are not as formidable as they believe, and they will be held accountable for the damage. The West's military strength far surpasses that of Russia. However, the potential involvement of China, a strong ally of Russia, remains a concern. While China possesses the military capabilities to compete with the West, the question remains whether they are willing to risk economic and political sanctions to support Russia.

A red line that Western leaders fear Putin may cross is the nuclear threshold, possibly through the use of a tactical nuclear bomb in Ukraine. However, it seems evident that Russia will refrain from such actions, as both Putin and the West recognize the political suicide it would entail. Any use of nuclear weapons in this illegal invasion would necessitate a response from the United States, and China has already expressed disapproval of the war escalating in this manner.

DOOR TO NATO SHUT FOR UKRAINE

If the West opts for the negotiation path with Ukraine, the door to a future NATO membership will be permanently closed for them. This would afford Putin the time to rebuild the army, rearm, and devise a more effective strategy for a future invasion. From the onset of the war, it was evident that Putin would only accept a demilitarized, neutral, and weakened Ukraine—nothing more.

Allowing Putin to prevail in this conflict increases the likelihood of future wars, potentially extending to the Baltic countries or Moldova, as previously discussed. The Nordic countries are not immune to the Russian threat. While Finland is a NATO member, its 1,340-kilometer border with Russia poses a significant vulnerability. Sweden, not yet approved for NATO membership, faces a looming threat from Kaliningrad. It's worth noting that Putin might harbor ambitions to create a corridor between the Russian enclave and Belarus, connecting it to Russia. This puts Poland and Lithuania at risk, particularly given their proximity to the Suwalki gap.

LIFE IN THE OCCUPIED TERRITORIES OF UKRAINE

When Ukraine's allies call for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to negotiate with Russia and let them keep the occupied territories while retaining the rest of Ukraine, the people - the Ukrainians - living in those territories are somewhat forgotten. Life in an occupied region is often exceedingly challenging. Homes are forcefully taken away from Ukrainians and given to the Russian military or Russian residents who are encouraged to move to the area. Ukrainian children are forcibly abducted to Russia, given new names, Russian passports, and identities, and forcefully Russified. Ukrainian women endure rape, beatings, and mistreatment, while Ukrainian men are forcibly mobilized into the Russian army and made to fight against Ukraine.

In almost every occupied region, one or more filtration camps exist. Ukrainians are taken to these camps and compelled to surrender their identifications; their phones are often searched for Ukrainian "Nazi" links, and the people are interrogated and beaten for days to weeks, sometimes months, until they say whatever the FSB or GRU officers want them to say.

Can we, in the West, truly live with the thought that we are allowing the genocide of Ukrainian citizens to happen because we are too stingy to give them what they require?

The West should provide Ukraine with long-range missile weapons so that they can target military installations behind the front lines and in Russia. They should promptly deliver the promised F-16s to enable Ukraine to establish air superiority. Additionally, they should supply Ukraine with sufficient ammunition, armament, and any other necessary equipment until the war is won.

While the West has spent billions supporting Ukraine, the potential human and monetary cost if the war reaches our doorstep would be much higher. The United States of America cannot stay out of the so-called "European" wars because if a NATO country is hit, the USA would have to respond anyway. Furthermore, the amount of money the USA has invested in Ukraine is quite high, but it is affordable for the American economy and a much better option than risking the lives of their servicemen against the Russians.

CONCLUSION

Europe cannot escape the geographical constraints it faces. It is abundantly clear that allowing Russia to emerge victorious will only embolden Vladimir Putin, leading to further escalation. Consequently, Europe and its Allies must transition from half-heartedly funding Ukraine in a barely sustainable manner to initiating a robust offensive. Ukraine needs to be equipped with all necessary tools to reclaim its territories, pushing Russian troops out and restoring the borders to the 1991 map.

Moreover, stringent sanctions should be imposed on Russia's arms suppliers, such as North Korea and Iran, intensifying the cost they pay for aiding Russia in its illegal invasion.

In addition, European nations must critically assess their individual military preparedness and work towards strengthening their troops, equipment, and arms. Demonstrating a formidable force is pivotal in warfare, where the side with superior manpower and weaponry often outlasts its adversary. The time for Europe to act decisively and assertively is now, as the consequences of inaction will be dire.