POLAND: A Closer Look at the Smolensk Air Disaster

In the records of aviation history, certain incidents stand out not just for their magnitude but for the profound impact they have on the collective consciousness. The Smolensk Air Disaster is one such tragedy that sent shockwaves across the globe on April 10, 2010. 

Last week, we covered the shocking massacres in Katyn, attributed to Soviet Russia in the 1940s. This blog post aims to delve into the details surrounding the flight that was headed to commemorate the massacres. We will examine the causes, aftermath, and the lingering questions that continue to shroud the Smolensk Air Disaster. 

THE PLANE CRASH

The Smolensk Air Disaster involved the crash of a Polish Air Force Tupolev Tu-154M, operating under Polish Air Force Flight 101, near the town of Smolensk, Russia. All 96 people on board died. Victims included the President of Poland, Lech Kaczyński, and his wife, Maria; the former president of Poland in exile, Ryszard Kaczorowski; the chief of the Polish General Staff and other senior Polish military officers; the president of the National Bank of Poland; Polish government officials; 18 members of the Polish parliament; senior members of the Polish clergy; and relatives of victims of the Katyn massacre. They were en route from Warsaw to attend an event commemorating the 79th anniversary of this tragic event, which claimed the lives of thousands of Polish officers and civilians. The massacre took place around Smolensk.

The pilots of the plane were attempting to land the aircraft at Smolensk North Airport amid horrendous weather conditions. A thick fog clung in the air, and visibility was limited to around 500 meters. The plane descended below the normal approach path, striking a canopy of trees. The plane rolled, inverted, and crashed into the ground, coming to a stop in a short, wooded area a short distance from the runway.

SMOLENSK NORTH AIRPORT

The Smolensk North Airport is a former military base currently used by both civilians and military personnel. In 2010, at the time of the plane crash, the airport did not meet Western standards. It lacked an ICAO-compliant Instrument Landing System (ILS), the standard system in many developed nations. Instead, the airport had a Russian-made landing system, which was decommissioned after civilian operations began. The Polish plane had been modified to use the more advanced Western-style ILS. While there was a non-directional beacon at the airport, it served more as a navigational aid for non-precision landings, guiding the pilot to align with the runway but providing no other descent guidance.

The airport also had a landing and surveillance radar. The lowest approved visibility conditions for landing were a cloud base of 100 meters and visibility of 1,000 meters, whereas they had only 500 meters of visibility.

According to Polish reports, the ground visual navigation aids were ineffective on the fateful day. The radar was unstable, swinging within ±10%. The investigation committee stated that they couldn't trace the origins of the Smolensk North lightning system components. The Russians claimed it was a Luch-2MU radar, but this was found to be untrue. An inspection flight conducted five days after the accident revealed evidence that the lights could be obscured by surrounding trees and shrubs depending on altitude and lamp location. When the aircraft was 400, 700, or 800 meters from Runway 26, the lights were hard to see. Additionally, there were maintenance issues with the lights; in the first group at 900 meters, the light filters were shattered, and only one out of three bulbs was working.

The Smolensk North Airport

CONDITIONS BAD FOR TRAVELLING     

The presidential plane left Warsaw at 9:27am Smolensk time, experiencing a 27-minute delay. As the plane traveled, weather conditions worsened at the destination due to a temperature inversion causing thick fog by trapping moisture low in the atmosphere. Around 9:15am, another plane carrying Polish officials and journalists landed at the airbase without issues. However, the weather deteriorated progressively. Concurrently, while Flight PLF101 was in the air, another Russian plane attempting to land at Smolensk North Airport was diverted to Vnukovo Airport near Moscow.

As PLF101 approached its final destination, the fog became increasingly dense, reducing visibility to 400 meters. Ground control advised the crew that the conditions were unsuitable for landing, but the Captain requested permission for a "trial" approach, which was granted.

Another potential contributing factor to the crash was the high level of anxiety on the flight. Although the crew likely knew diverting the plane would be safer, they may have been apprehensive about the President's reaction to a change in plans. Past incidents, where a pilot refused to alter course for safety reasons and faced subsequent investigation and clearance, might have added to this anxiety.

Additionally, the Captain faced a dual role, managing the radio and flying the plane. This was because Russian ground control did not speak English, and Russian regulations required a leaderman who spoke Russian for landing approval. Poland opted not to have a Russian leaderman, as the crew spoke sufficient Russian. However, the pilot, who was also the most experienced crew member, handled both roles.

INVESTIGATION 

The investigation was a joint effort between Russia and Poland, as the crash occurred on Russian soil. Following ICAO procedures, Russia took the main responsibility for the investigation. Simultaneously, Poland established its own committee and launched a criminal investigation in both countries. In the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC), based in Moscow, oversaw civil aviation management and accident investigations within member nations. This committee played a pivotal role in facilitating the joint investigation between Russia and Poland.

Shortly after the crash, a special commission led by then Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was formed in Russia to probe the incident. The Investigation Committee of the Prosecutor General of Russia initiated a criminal case focusing on safety rule violations.

Flight recorders were recovered undamaged, including the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) and the flight data recorder (FDR). On the same day as the crash, investigators analyzed the logs and found that the airplane did not have any technical issues, contrary to initial beliefs. The recorders provided insight into the crew's actions, and both Russia and Poland analyzed the recordings.

A meticulous search for human remains ensued, with the ground being dug up to one meter down. Genetic testing was conducted on any small remains found. However, not all remains were removed, as teeth and other parts were still discovered many years after the crash in the area. Russia extended cooperation to Polish prosecutors and allowed access to the Russian-based investigation, although challenges emerged, such as a lack of documentation from Smolensk airport. Polish investigators aimed to incorporate Russian findings as supportive evidence while maintaining independence.

Sharing evidence and preliminary findings posed problems, initially scheduled for release but later delayed until the funeral of the late President of Poland and his wife. Subsequent delays occurred until the full analysis was complete. Various parties, including Poland, Russia, and international investigators, analyzed different components of the investigation.

Communication issues between traffic control and the captain were raised, citing that it was hard to speak with the Polish crew who did not speak Russian particularly well. However, this was surprising as the captain was fluent in Russian and English. However, other crew members, such as the navigator responsible for communicating with ground control, lacked proficiency in Russian.

The captain's decision to attempt a landing at Smolensk North Airport despite severe weather conditions was questioned. The airport should have been closed under normal procedures, but it was speculated that it remained open due to fears of a potential diplomatic incident. The pilot was advised that the weather conditions were unsuitable for landing, yet he committed to attempting one approach at Smolensk regardless. Concerns were also raised about whether it was Russian military air traffic control (ATC) or civil ATC that gave instructions to Flight 101, as the flight was classified as a military flight.

The final accident report clarified that Russian civil controllers lacked the authority to issue military orders to Flight 101, emphasizing that the "trial" approach was undertaken at the risk of the flight crew, not the ATC.

Lech Kaczyński

THEFT

About two months later, on June 6, 2010, it was reported that some payments had been tied to some of the victims of the crash. Payments worth €1,400 were made from the credit card of historian Andrzej Przewoźnik. Additionally, a credit card was reported missing from politician Aleksandra Natalli-Świat, but no unauthorized transactions were made from her cards.

Two days later, the Russian media agency ITAR-TASS reported that four soldiers had been arrested in connection with this charge. The perpetrators were found with three missing credit cards that were used to withdraw 60,345 rubles. Polish authorities admitted that the criminals were most likely conscripts in the Russian army. The first transactions were made two hours after the crash. The Polish government was quick to blame members of the Russian OMON forces, but this was a mistake as they were not responsible.

PRELIMINARY AND FINAL REPORTS

An initial report by the CIS' Interstate Aviation Committee (MAK) indicated that all three engines of the Tupolev Tu-154M were functioning normally, with no signs of fire or explosion before the crash. The aircraft experienced a critical event at 8:41:02.5 (Polish time) when the tail separated, causing all systems to cease operation at 8:41:04. The investigation revealed that the aircraft was 40 meters lower than its intended altitude, and the discrepancy in recorded crash times remained unexplained.

The subsequent investigations, published on May 19, 2010, by the Interstate Aviation Committee and on July 29, 2011, by the Polish authorities, attributed the crash primarily to pilot error. The aircraft deviated off course, striking a tree and descending too low without proper visibility. The reports criticized the organization of the Polish special aviation regiment, its leaders, Russian air traffic controllers, and deficiencies in the airport's lighting and approach area. Despite these findings, lingering questions and unease in Polish discourse led to further investigations and fueled conspiracy theories surrounding the crash.

The Russian final accident report, completed by the Interstate Aviation Committee (MAK) on October 20, 2010, was sent to Polish authorities, who criticized its creation, claiming violations of the Convention on International Civil Aviation. The final report highlighted discrepancies, including the captain's altimeter setting, controller's radar screen calibration issues, and radio call inaccuracies. Additionally, MAK conducted a simulator experiment indicating the last feasible moment for a successful go-around.

Poland, in response, published comments on the draft report, asserting that their requests for documents were unmet, and their recommendations were not fully incorporated. The Polish comments raised concerns about radar calibration, ATC information, discrepancies in approach cards, doubts about Smolensk's compliance with regulations, and issues regarding insurance, certification, and medical examination documentation. The discrepancies and disagreements between the Russian and Polish reports fueled ongoing uncertainties and suspicions, contributing to conspiracy theories surrounding the crash.

CAUSES OF THE CRASH

The MAK report on the Smolensk air crash identified the primary cause as the crew's failure to divert to an alternate airport despite multiple warnings of poor weather conditions. It highlighted the extreme stress and "psychological pressure" on the captain due to the presence of the Commander-in-Chief of the Polish Air Force in the cockpit. Contributing factors included a discussion causing a "clash of motives," non-compliance with procedures, lack of crew resource management, and deficiencies in bad weather flight experience. Systemic causes were attributed to significant shortcomings in the organization of flight operations and crew preparation.

The Polish government's report, while also citing pilot error as the main cause, diverged from the Russian report. It emphasized the crew's decision to abort landing at 100m altitude, hindered by the aircraft's autopilot limitations. The Polish report implicated Russian air traffic control for providing incorrect information and identified deficiencies at the Smolensk airport, including obstacles in the approach airspace, faulty lighting systems, and inaccuracies in airport information received by Poland. Additional factors included the failure to monitor altitude, inadequate crew training, insufficient knowledge of the aircraft's systems, and ineffective supervision of flight training processes.

CONSPIRACY THEORIES AND CONTROVERSIES

Conspiracy theories surrounding the 2010 Smolensk plane crash have proliferated since the incident. These theories range from allegations of political assassination, suggesting an act of war or a coup attempt, with some implicating Russia. Various claims within these theories include suspicions of artificial fog, doctored autopsies, and planted explosives on the plane. Politicians from the Law and Justice party, including Jarosław Kaczyński and Antoni Macierewicz, have been linked to the assassination theory, accusing then-Prime Minister Donald Tusk of a cover-up.

One contentious element revolves around reports of explosive traces in the wreckage. In 2012, the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita claimed the presence of explosives, but this was disputed by prosecutors. Journalists were fired over the story, later winning a court ruling confirming the accuracy of their information. Further examinations, including by the British Ministry of Defence, allegedly confirmed traces of explosives. However, experts debate the credibility of handheld explosives detectors and point out inconsistencies in the locations and amounts of traces found.

Several investigations, including those led by the Law and Justice party, asserted that the crash involved multiple explosions on board. However, the official reports from 2011 contradicted these claims. The debate extends to the role of a birch tree in the crash, with critics questioning the official narrative. The Smolensk Conference and the Subcommittee for the Re-investigation of the Smolensk Air Crash, led by Antoni Macierewicz, contributed to the ongoing controversy. In 2023, the newly elected Polish government dissolved the Subcommittee, discrediting its findings and sparking further political debates and accusations. Despite some political figures and foreign leaders suggesting Russian involvement, the assassination theory has not gained widespread support among the general population in Poland.

Returned wreckage parts 

CONCLUSION 

In conclusion, the Smolensk Air Disaster stands as a poignant chapter in Polish history, casting a lasting shadow over the intricate dynamics between Russia and Poland. This tragic event has not only deepened existing fault lines in their relationship but has also become a focal point for persistent political controversies. While accusations of assassination continue to echo, the stark reality remains that the plane's demise was ultimately the result of adverse weather conditions and errors in judgment.

The journey of investigations, fraught with challenges and conflicting narratives from both sides, has only intensified the atmosphere of uncertainty and speculation. The ongoing controversies have further fueled the rumor mill, contributing to the complexities surrounding the understanding of the tragedy.

The Smolensk Air Disaster, with its intricate web of theories and political implications, underscores the need for a thorough and impartial investigation if such an international accident is to occur again.

References

• Notes From Poland: Kaczyński: Smolensk crash “was attack decided at highest level of Kremlin”
• Euronews: Polish commission again accuses Russia over 2010 Smolensk plane crash
• RFEL: Poland Scraps Probe Into 2010 Air Crash That Killed President
• The New York Times: Rift Over Air Crash Roils Poland’s Artists
• Admiral Cloudberg blog: All the President’s Men: The story of the Smolensk Air Disaster and the death of Lech Kaczyński
• Aviation Safety Network: Incident report of Flight PLF101
• Committee for Investigation of National Aviation Accidents: Final Report of the Tu-154M airplane