SOUTH AMERICA: The Venezuela-Guyana Dispute

The longstanding tension between Guyana and Venezuela over the territory of Essequibo emerges as a pivotal chapter in the complicated history of South American geopolitics. Spanning over a century, this territorial dispute encompasses approximately 160,000 square kilometers and is rooted in a web of historical grievances, colonial legacies, and the pursuit of valuable natural resources. 

In this blog post, we peel back the layers of history to unravel the Guyana-Venezuela dispute, examining the modern-day implications that echo through the corridors of power and influence and take at look at the disputed territory of Essequibo.

Essequibo River and surrounding jungles, with potential oil reserve underneath

THE HISTORY OF VENEZUELA AND THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE 

Venezuela's political history has been marked by periods of stability and turbulence. The country gained independence from Spanish rule in 1821 and went through various forms of government, including a federal republic and military dictatorships. However, the latter half of the 20th century witnessed the emergence of democratic governance. In 1958, a coalition of political parties ousted the military regime, leading to the establishment of a stable democratic system. Over the next few decades, Venezuela experienced economic growth, largely fueled by oil exports.

The late 20th century and early 21st century saw shifts in political dynamics. The rise of Hugo Chávez in the late 1990s brought about a significant transformation. Chávez, a charismatic military officer, led a populist movement and was elected president in 1998. His presidency marked a shift towards left-wing policies, including nationalization of key industries and social welfare programs. While Chávez enjoyed substantial support from the lower-income population, his rule also faced criticism for authoritarian tendencies and economic mismanagement.

Following Chávez's death in 2013, Nicolás Maduro, his chosen successor, assumed the presidency. Maduro's tenure has been marked by a deepening economic crisis, characterized by hyperinflation, widespread poverty, and a sharp decline in oil production. Political polarization intensified, leading to protests, allegations of electoral irregularities, and international condemnation. The political situation is further made complex by the upcoming presidential elections, in 2024. 

Nicolás Maduro, President of Venezuela

GUYANA, A SMALL AND RICH NATION WITH A COMPLEX BACKGROUND

Guyana's history is a tapestry woven with the threads of indigenous cultures, European colonization, and the legacies of African and Asian migrations. Before European contact, the region was inhabited by various Amerindian peoples. The Dutch were the first European colonizers in the early 17th century, establishing plantations and a trading post. However, the British gradually gained control, and by the late 18th century, Guyana became a British colony. The plantation economy thrived on the labor of enslaved Africans and, later, indentured laborers from India and China.

Guyana achieved independence from British colonial rule in 1966. Subsequently, the country underwent various political transitions, experiencing a mix of democratic governance and periods of authoritarian rule. Ethnic tensions, particularly between the Afro-Guyanese and Indo-Guyanese communities, have played a role in shaping the political landscape. 

In recent years, Guyana has gained attention for its significant oil discoveries offshore. The newfound oil wealth presents both opportunities and challenges for the nation's development. Managing the economic windfall and addressing social issues remain key priorities. Guyana's history reflects a rich interplay of indigenous heritage, colonial influences, and the struggles and triumphs of a multicultural society navigating the complexities of post-colonial nation-building.

Dr Mohamed Irfaan Ali – President of the Co-operative Republic of Guyana

WHAT IS THE TERRITORY OF ESSEQUIBO AND WHO DOES IT BELONG TO?

The Essequibo territory is a region of geopolitical significance located in South America, primarily in the country of Guyana. The area is named after the Essequibo River, one of the longest rivers in the region. The territory encompasses diverse ecosystems, ranging from dense rainforests to savannas, and it holds ecological importance due to its rich biodiversity. The Essequibo region has been historically significant, playing a role in the colonial struggles between European powers in the 17th century.

Controversially, the Essequibo territory has been at the center of a longstanding territorial dispute between Guyana and Venezuela. The disagreement traces back to the colonial era when European powers, particularly Spain and the Netherlands, asserted competing claims over the region. Despite various diplomatic efforts to resolve the issue, tensions persist, with both countries presenting historical and legal arguments to support their respective claims. 

Guyana represents about 3/4 of Guyana

WHY DOES VENEZUELA WANT ESSEQUIBO TO BE PART OF ITS SOVERIGN TERRITORY?

The territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over the region of Essequibo is rooted in historical claims, colonial legacies, and the rich natural resources that the area possesses. Venezuela's interest in Essequibo can be traced back to the 19th century when the region was part of the Spanish Viceroyalty of New Granada.

The origins of the dispute can be linked to the 1899 Arbitral Tribunal award, also known as the Arbitral Award of Paris. This arbitration, mediated by a tribunal consisting of representatives from Russia, Germany, and France, resulted in the delineation of the borders between British Guiana (now Guyana) and Venezuela. However, Venezuela contested the legitimacy of the arbitration, claiming that the award was biased and that it unjustly favored British interests.

In recent years, the territorial dispute has taken on new dimensions, especially with Guyana's significant oil discoveries off its coast. The presence of substantial oil reserves has heightened the geopolitical importance of the Essequibo territory, adding an economic dimension to the longstanding disagreement. 

WHAT ABOUT THE VOTE? WAS IT ILLEGITIMATE? 

On 3rd December, 2023, Venezuela held a non-binding referendum that asked the Venezuelan people to vote on five questions relating to absorbing the territory of Essequibo back into Venezuela. The referendum questions were: 

1. "Do you agree to reject by all means in accordance with the law, the line fraudulently interposed by the 1899 Paris Arbitration Award, which seeks to deprive us of our Guayana Esequiba?"
2. "Do you support the 1966 Geneva Agreement as the only valid legal instrument to reach a practical and satisfactory solution for Venezuela and Guyana regarding the controversy over the territory of Guayana Esequiba?"
3. "Do you agree with Venezuela's historical position of not recognizing the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice to resolve the territorial controversy over Guayana Esequiba?"
4. "Do you agree to oppose, by all legal means, Guyana's claim to unilaterally dispose of a sea pending delimitation, illegally and in violation of international law?"
5. "Do you agree with the creation of the Guayana Esequiba state and the development of an accelerated plan for comprehensive care for the current and future population of that territory, which includes, among others, the granting of citizenship and identity card? Venezuela, in accordance with the Geneva Agreement and International Law, consequently incorporating said state on the map of Venezuelan territory?"

Sources indicate that approximately 20 million voters were eligible to participate in the referendum, but only half of that number actually showed up. Interestingly, Venezuela reported an overwhelmingly high level of support, ranging from 95% to 98%, for each of the questions posed in the referendum. However, suspicions arose regarding the legitimacy of the results, with allegations of rigging and falsification.

International analysts and media outlets brought attention to a table published by the National Electoral Council (CNE), which initially displayed around 2 million votes for each question. Notably, this information was later deleted. The implications suggest that the reported 10 million votes may represent the total votes counted, not the number of individual voters. In essence, there could have been approximately 2 million voters, constituting merely 10% of the total eligible voting pool in Venezuela. Opposition politician Henrique Capriles also echoed similar concerns, reinforcing the doubts surrounding the transparency and accuracy of the referendum results.

WILL MADURO LAUNCH AN INVASION? WHAT ABOUT BRAZIL?

A war between Venezuela and Guyana would have severe consequences, not only for these two nations but also for the wider region. Both countries have a history of territorial disputes, primarily centered around the Essequibo region, and any military conflict could escalate tensions and result in significant humanitarian, economic, and environmental impacts.

The referendum comes on the back of growing military presence on the border of Guyana and Venezuela, which they also share with Brazil. The increased troop presence from Venezuela has made Guyana's government nervous. President Mohamed Irfaan Ali requested an explanation from the Venezuelan ambassador, presiding in Guyana's capital of Georgetown, regarding the increased troop movements in the border region.

Guyana is also unnerved as the Venezuelan military count is about 123,000 active personnel. Guyana has a paltry 3,400 defence force personnel in comparison. They are also outnumbered in terms of weaponry, such as tanks and armored vehicles. However, military analysts believe that the Venezuelan defence forces capabilities have been overinflated. For example, only 12 out of 24 Sukhoi Su-30 Russian fighters are considered fit for duty. 

However, despite the immense differences in troops size and equipment, the lands around the Essequibo region are dense jungle. This makes it hard to enter with any armored vehicle or tanks, the best way to fight is with small units. On top of this Venezuela would have to go through Brazilian territory, and this could lead to immediate escalations as Brazil has also moved troops to the border and has made it clear they will not allow an invasion to happen. 

The international community, including regional organizations and neighboring countries, would likely condemn such a conflict and may attempt to mediate and negotiate a peaceful resolution. The potential for external intervention or involvement could further complicate the situation. Additionally, the global community, including the United Nations, typically works to prevent and mitigate conflicts, and a war between two nations in South America would likely attract international attention and efforts to find a diplomatic solution.

In practical terms, a war could lead to displacement of civilians, loss of lives, economic disruption, and environmental damage, especially if the conflict spills into areas with significant natural resources, such as oil reserves. The stability of the broader region could be at risk, as neighboring countries may face the consequences of increased migration, economic fallout, and potential security concerns. 

Brazilian Forces have been deployed to the border region between the three countries

WOULD UNITED STATES STEP IN? WHAT ABOUT RUSSIA? 

The United States has affirmed its support for Guyana, emphasizing its commitment to the country's sovereignty. White House national security spokesperson John Kirby conveyed this stance to reporters, stating, "We absolutely stand by our unwavering support for Guyana's sovereignty."

In addition to the verbal support, the United States has engaged in flight drills with Guyana, characterizing these activities as "routine engagement and operations to enhance [the] security partnership between the United States and Guyana." Despite the stated purpose, these drills have been perceived by some as a demonstration of strength, possibly serving as a deterrent to potential military intervention by Venezuela.

Speculation has arisen regarding the motives behind Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's recent interest in the Essequibo region. Some conjecture that external influences, possibly orchestrated by Vladimir Putin, might be pushing Maduro to initiate a military operation in the region. This move could divert attention from Russia's illegal and horrific invasion of Ukraine and potentially influence the upcoming 2024 elections in Venezuela.

While Venezuela possesses abundant oil reserves, raising questions about the necessity of acquiring Essequibo's oil, the geopolitical implications of the region cannot be ignored. There are suspicions of hidden motives and external actors orchestrating this potential conflict.

A regional conflict in South America could have far-reaching consequences, extending beyond the Guyana-Venezuela dispute. The involvement of Brazil and potential military aid from both the United States and Russia for their respective allies could escalate the situation. The global order could be significantly impacted, as the conflict may not be limited to Guyana and Venezuela, with both nations unwilling to compromise on territorial claims. The potential for a broader conflict underscores the complexity and sensitivity of the situation in South America.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the Essequibo dispute, beyond its immediate regional implications, holds global significance. The possibility of a regional conflict in South America, involving not only Guyana and Venezuela but also drawing in influential nations like Brazil, the United States, and Russia, underscores the complexity and potential for far-reaching consequences. 

As the situation unfolds, the international community will be closely monitoring developments in South America, recognizing the delicate balance that must be maintained to prevent a broader conflict that could disrupt the global order. The intricacies of this geopolitical puzzle demand careful diplomatic navigation and a nuanced understanding of the motives at play to foster stability in the region.

Resources

• The Guardian: Venezuela referendum result: voters back bid to claim sovereignty over large swath of Guyana
• The Guardian: Maduro vote to claim Guyana’s territory backfires as Venezuelans stay home
• Al Jazeera: Venezuela holds referendum on oil-rich Guyana region: Four things to know
• INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE: Summary of the Order of 1 December 2023
• France24: Essequibo referendum: Is Venezuela about to seize part of Guyana?
• Venezuela Analysis: Venezuela: Referendum Delivers Overwhelming Backing for Essequibo Claim
• CATO Institute: Will Nicolás Maduro Invade Guyana?
• Al Jazeera: US to conduct Guyana flights as tensions mount over Venezuela dispute
• Loop Caribbean News: Russia urges peaceful resolution of Guyana-Venezuela territory dispute
• The Telegraph: Will Russia-backed Venezuela start a war in South America? | Defence in Depth