UKRAINE: A Peace Deal is Impossible While Russia Denies Ukraine's Existence
THE SITUATION OF THE WAR AS IT IS NOW, ZALUZHNYI'S COMMENTS
Ukraine's commander-in-chief, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, has recently stirred the international arena with a publication suggesting that the ongoing war has hit a "stalemate," prompting renewed calls for peace negotiations.
While the desire to halt the extensive bloodshed on both sides is understandable, advocating for a peace deal with Russia in the current scenario seems nothing short of madness. Vladimir Putin's apparent willingness to commit genocide in a country he dismissively describes as non-existent raises serious concerns. True peace, it is argued, cannot be achieved until Russia is decisively defeated, with all its military presence and equipment removed from Ukrainian territory.
The notion of negotiating a peace deal at this juncture is met with skepticism, as it is seen as providing Russia with a strategic pause—an opportunity to rearm and regroup for a potential subsequent illegal invasion. The fear looms that any negotiated stoppage in the conflict may merely serve as a temporary respite, allowing Russia to gather the energy needed for another assault aimed at wiping Ukraine off the map. As the debate surrounding peace negotiations intensifies, the intricacies of achieving genuine and lasting peace in the region come sharply into focus.
LOSSES IN THE WAR
The toll of the war in Ukraine is shrouded in uncertainty. United States estimates the number of Ukrainian military casualties ranging from 70,000 dead and 100,000 to 120,000 injured. However, the opacity surrounding these figures is understandable, given Ukraine's lack of incentive to openly disclose such sensitive information. On the flip side, Russia paints a grimmer picture, with over 300,000 soldiers dead or wounded in the 1 year and 8 months since the start of their illegal invasion of Ukraine. The collateral damage extends beyond the human cost, encompassing billions of dollars in lost equipment and a staggering decline in the Russian economy, military morale, and population satisfaction reaching an all-time low.
Remarkably, these concerns seem to be secondary for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who appears more fixated on his perceived war with NATO and the obliteration of Ukraine than on the well-being of his own nation and people. This mindset is glaringly evident in the ruthless strategy employed in battles like Bakhmut, where Russian soldiers were seemingly thrown into a relentless meat grinder, facing wave after wave of casualties for the sake of a relatively small town measuring "six by six kilometers."
The same ominous pattern unfolds in the current conflict in Avdiivka, where Russian forces hold their ground and launched a massive offensive. In this single battle, an estimated 5,000 - 6,000 Russian soldiers are believed to have lost their lives. This stark reality highlights the gravity of the situation and underscores the questionable priorities driving the Russian leadership, as they seemingly prioritize territorial gains over the lives and well-being of their own military personnel.
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| Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine |
HOW DOES PUTIN VIEW UKRAINE AND DENIES ITS EXISTENCE
Putin's penchant for denying Ukraine's existence has become more than a mere pastime—it's a recurring theme in his rhetoric. The most recent instance of this was witnessed during his address to the Russian Public Chamber on November 3rd, 2023, where he boldly asserted that "There was no Ukraine as part of the empire, there were regions, and it came in the 16th century, Ukraine, consisted of three regions: Kiev and the Kiev region, Zhitomir, Chernigov – that's all." Putin further claimed that Ukraine was an artificial creation by Vladimir Lenin and the early Soviet politburo, allegedly at the expense of southern Russian lands. "Then what happened happened. They started to form the Soviet Union and created a huge Ukraine, and primarily and to a large extent at the expense of the South Russian lands – all the Black Sea region and so on, although all these cities, as we know, were founded by Catherine the Great after a series of wars with the Ottoman Empire."
This narrative, however, is far from novel. A glimpse into Putin's worldview is found in his extensive 6,000-word essay from July 2021, where he asserted that Ukrainians are essentially Russians, constituting "one people." This written piece has since been disseminated as ideological propaganda within the Russian army, serving as a seemingly legitimate justification for the ongoing invasion.
As the invasion unfolded, Putin declared a campaign to "return Russian lands," drawing historical parallels to the conquests of Russian Tsar Peter the Great. Speculation arose that after Ukraine, Putin might have his sights set on other former Soviet countries, such as the Baltic States. This strategic ambition raises concerns about the potential extension of Russian influence beyond Ukraine, invoking echoes of historical conquests and territorial expansions.
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| Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation |
THE WESTERN ALLIES' SUPPORT AND THEIR VIEW ON THINGS
Since the onset of the invasion, Ukraine has received steady support from the West, with the United States leading the way by committing nearly 70 billion USD. The European Union, Canada, and Australia have also been significant contributors, offering monetary aid for humanitarian and military purposes, as well as supplying military weapons and defense equipment. Despite the appreciated support, it has not been sufficient overall and has not arrived swiftly enough to give Ukraine a decisive advantage in the ongoing conflict.
While the provided military assistance has allowed Ukraine to hold its ground, the West has been hesitant to supply enough offensive weapons to make a substantial impact. Conditions imposed on the delivery of weapons, such as restricting their use on Russian targets inside Russia, have added complexities to the aid.
The reluctance to provide air support, including fighter jets or assistance in closing the airspace above Ukraine, has further hindered Ukraine's progress. A swifter response from the West could have potentially altered the course of the conflict. However, the gradual and hesitant approach has allowed Russia to entrench and fortify its positions.
Ukrainian forces face formidable challenges, navigating through minefields, fortified trenches, and well-established enemy positions on the way to critical locations like Crimea. These obstacles, coupled with the outbreak of war in Israel on October 7th, triggered by Hamas' kidnapping of Israeli citizens, have divided Western support. The United States, funding both Ukraine and Israel, finds itself in a complex position.
The escalating hostilities in the Middle East have diverted attention and resources, leading to a decrease in interest and coverage of the conflict in Ukraine. As attention shifts, there are renewed discussions of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, reflecting the evolving dynamics and priorities on the global stage.
MANPOWER ISSUES IN THE UKRAINIAN ARMY
Amidst the challenges of a sluggish counter-offensive and waning Western support, Ukraine grapples with a pressing issue: the recruitment shortage for its Defense Forces. President Zelenskyy's open conscription policy, aimed at bolstering military ranks, has sparked increased protests among Ukrainians. Some have opted for drastic measures, leaving the country or resorting to forging doctor papers to evade conscription and deployment to the Front Lines.
Simultaneously, on the Front Lines, seasoned personnel find themselves exhausted but view their service as a privilege dedicated to the defense of their nation. There's a palpable sentiment among these dedicated individuals—they are unwilling to entrust their lives to those who lack genuine commitment.
In response to the challenges of draft evasion, Ukraine has implemented stringent measures. Increased patrols along the borders with countries like Romania aim to apprehend individuals attempting to escape through the forest into neighboring EU nations. The tightening of mobilization and conscription laws is another facet of the strategy.
To further dissuade draft dodgers, sentences are being reinforced, ensuring that those who evade their duties face significant prison terms—a stern consequence for what is perceived as cowardice in the face of national obligation. The nation is at a critical juncture, navigating not only military challenges but also internal struggles to maintain and strengthen its defense capabilities.
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| Personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) |
WHY A PEACE DEAL IS NOT ACCEPTABLE RIGHT NOW
Negotiating peace deals with Russia at this juncture would essentially provide them with a tactical timeout—an opportunity to retract troops for rearming, allow soldiers a period of rest, and grant generals the chance to formulate new offensive plans. History has shown us this pattern since 2014, with the war in Ukraine commencing after the Maidan Revolution. Talks like MINSK I and MINSK II failed to quell hostilities, signaling that any current peace negotiations may merely be a precursor to a part two of the conflict, furthering Putin's goals of obliterating Ukraine.
Moreover, the West, especially Europe, must exercise caution in offering Russia any relief from being held accountable for war crimes and atrocities committed in Ukraine. Accepting a lenient approach jeopardizes the credibility of NATO and undermines the ability to appear serious in the face of such transgressions. It is imperative to stand firm, insisting that Russia withdraws all troops from Ukraine, returns to the 1991 borders, and immediately halts all atrocities. Any leniency risks affording Russia the time to regroup and potentially launch an attack on NATO.
This steadfast stance is not only crucial for international stability but also holds significance for Ukraine's post-war scenario. Facing estimated rebuilding costs of 600 billion USD, Ukraine cannot rely on Russia for financial assistance. The West's commitment to reconstruction hinges on the assurance that there is no looming threat of another attack. Balancing the need for rebuilding with the necessity to prevent future conflicts is a delicate but vital consideration for all stakeholders involved.
WHERE TO FROM NOW?
Maintaining a calm and resolute unity with Ukraine is paramount for the West in these challenging times. While the ongoing conflict in Israel demands our support, it is crucial not to lose sight of the severity of the situation with Russia. Allowing Russia to emerge victorious could result in far greater costs—financial, resource-related, and in terms of human lives—compared to the current commitment of funds and weapons to Ukraine. Even retired US General Mark Milley underscores the importance of preventing the slide in Ukraine, warning that failure to do so would prompt European and NATO allies to double their defense spending.
The imperative is clear: under no circumstances can we allow Russia to prevail. A defeat in Ukraine is not only necessary but also essential to prevent significant repercussions. Those responsible for atrocities, particularly Vladimir Putin, must be held accountable. The call for justice goes beyond rhetoric; it demands action, including bringing individuals before the International Criminal Court in The Hague for trial. The stakes are high, and the West's collective determination to thwart Russian aggression is a decisive factor in shaping the outcome of this critical geopolitical juncture.
CONCLUSION
In the midst of the diverse array of opinions and voices echoing across the world, the impending elections in many of Ukraine's allies have initiated fresh discussions about peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Despite the weariness that pervades the Ukrainian people, a steadfast resolve persists—a refusal to negotiate with an adversary responsible for the theft of their land, the torment, rape, and abduction of their citizens, and the daily loss of Ukrainian lives.
As the West contemplates its role, it is crucial to adopt a broader perspective, recognizing that supporting Ukraine today is an investment in a free and prosperous tomorrow. Providing Ukraine with the necessary resources—be it weapons, funds, or other forms of assistance—ensures a more secure and stable future. Conversely, granting Russia a reprieve could sow the seeds of a war of attrition in Europe, with consequences reverberating in the West in the next five or ten years. The imperative is clear: by standing firmly with Ukraine today, the West safeguards not only the immediate well-being of a nation under siege but also the long-term stability and freedom of the broader European landscape.
References
- The Atlantic Council: Peace is impossible while Vladimir Putin denies Ukraine’s right to exist
- The Atlantic Council: Arming Ukraine is cheap compared to the far higher price of Russian victory
- France24: Russia fighting for its 'historical lands': Putin
- The Economist: Ukraine’s commander-in-chief on the breakthrough he needs to beat Russia
- The Economist: The commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces on how to win the war
- The Economist, Essay - Valerii Zaluzhnyi: MODERN POSITIONAL WARFARE AND HOW TO WIN IN IT
- United Nations: Underscoring Need for Peace, End to Suffering, Security Council Speakers Urge Russian Federation to Immediately Withdraw Troops from Ukraine
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: What Does the Conflict in the Middle East Mean for Ukraine?
- NBC News: U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy: Ukraine Support Tracker
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