THE SILOVIKI: Russia's Dominant Power Figures and Potential Successors to Putin

Since the recent alleged "coup" attempt in Russia, there has been significant curiosity surrounding the influential individuals within Kremlin circles. Many are questioning who holds sway over Putin and whether there are any potential future threats of a putsch against him.

In this discussion, let's delve into Putin's inner circle, comprising of the "siloviki" and the "oligarchs". These individuals possess the levers of political power in present-day Russia. Who are they, and what roles do they play in relation to Putin? Could one of them potentially succeed Putin as the President of Russia when he is no longer considered indispensable?

President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin

WHO ARE THE "SILOVIKI"?

The "siloviki" also known as "seurocrats" in political science, are individuals who have a background in security and military services (such as the former KGB, or current FSB) and have secured positions within Putin's realm of influence. They were previously associated with the silovye ministrestva, or "ministries of force" in English. The term "siloviki" stems from the Russian word "silovik," which denotes a person affiliated with a "force" or "power" structure.

Since the 1990s, when Vladimir Putin assumed power in Russia, the siloviki have permeated both high-level and low-level positions across all branches of government. The current regime can be characterized as a "hard" authoritarian system that leans towards a "soft" dictatorship. As a result, ordinary Russian citizens experience a certain degree of personal freedoms, but significant restrictions on political rights, civil liberties, and personal security. This dictatorship format has strengthened with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. 

Siloviki often hold key positions in government, state-owned enterprises, and other important institutions. They are perceived as a tight-knit group and are seen as having a significant impact on decision-making processes in Russia. Their rise to power has been associated with the strengthening of the state's control over various aspects of society and the economy.

WHAT ABOUT OLIGARCHS? WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO?

The term "oligarch" is commonly associated with post-Soviet states, including Russia, where a small group of individuals amassed immense wealth and political influence following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Oligarchs typically accumulated their wealth through various means in the late 1990s, such as privatization of state-owned enterprises, natural resource industries, financial services, or other lucrative sectors. They often have close connections with the government, political elites, and influential networks, allowing them to shape economic policies and exert influence over key decision-making processes.

Oligarchs can have substantial control over important sectors of the economy, including energy, media, telecommunications, banking, and more. They often possess vast financial resources, enabling them to exert significant political influence, shape public opinion, and even fund political campaigns.

Siloviki are individuals with a background in security and military services, holding influential positions in government and law enforcement, while oligarchs are wealthy individuals who have amassed significant fortunes and wield economic influence over key sectors. While there may be some overlap or connections between the two groups, they primarily represent distinct spheres of power in Russia.

THE MOST INFLUENTIAL SILOVIKI IN THE KREMLIN

There are many influential figures in the Kremlin, however some siloviki enjoy a greater strength of power due to being closer to Vladimir Putin. Some prominent names are: 

Igor Sechin

Igor Sechin: Sechin is the CEO of Rosneft, one of the largest oil companies in Russia. He has a background in the security services and is seen as a close ally of Putin. Sechin's influence in the energy sector has earned him the label of a prominent silovik and oligarch.

Sergey Ivanov

Sergey Ivanov: Ivanov has held various high-ranking positions in the Russian government, including Minister of Defense and Deputy Prime Minister. He has a background in the KGB and is considered part of the siloviki network.

Sergey Naryshkin

Sergey Naryshkin: Naryshkin currently holds the position of Director at Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR). Prior to this role, he served as the Speaker of the State Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament, and has strong connections to the security services. Naryshkin and Putin have had a longstanding relationship dating back to the 1990s. Due to his background and influence within the siloviki circles, Naryshkin is considered a potential successor to Putin. Additionally, he also leads the Russian Historical Society, which aims to revise certain aspects of Russian history in accordance with the current regime's perspectives and objectives. Notably, Naryshkin has been instrumental in propagating the narrative of Nazis in Ukraine.

Nikolai Patrushev

Nikolai Patrushev: Patrushev currently holds the position of Secretary of the Security Council in Russia. Previously, he served as the Director of the FSB (Federal Security Service) from 1999 to 2008 and is widely recognized as a prominent figure within the siloviki network. Having maintained a longstanding friendship with Vladimir Putin, Patrushev is regarded as a significant influencer within the Kremlin. Moreover, he is often mentioned as a potential successor to the Russian presidency. Notably, Patrushev holds certain conspiratorial beliefs, including the notion that the United States aims to disintegrate Russia, with Ukraine being a pivotal component of their alleged plan.

Alexander Bortnikov

Alexander Bortnikov: He is the Director of the Federal Security Services of Russia, or the FSB. He has served in that role since 2008. He is also one of the most powerful members of Putin's inner circle, and is believed to have played a key role in influencing Putin to invade Ukraine in 2022. He hold the rank of General of the Army, which is the second highest grade in the Russian military. 

Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov 

Sergei Shoigu: He is the Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation. Shoigu, and Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, were the two key targets of PMC Wagner's "March for Justice" on 24 June 2023. He has been Minister of Defence since 2012. Shoigu is not a traditional siloviki as he does not have any intelligence or military background, but rather has a civil engineer background. He climbed the ranks of power due to having close connections to Boris Yeltsin. He oversaw the illegal occupation of Crimea in 2014 and the Russian intervention in Syria. 

Ramzan Kadyrov: He holds a distinct position within the Kremlin, separate from the siloviki circle. He leads the Chechen army, comprising the Kadyrovites and the Akhmat Special Forces. While these entities have been involved in the Ukrainian conflict, they gained notoriety as the "TikTok Army" for their prolific posting of videos shooting at the sky or unrelated objects instead of actively engaging on the front lines. Kadyrov is not liked by the other siloviki. He has powerful enemies in the circle, including Bortnikov, Ivanov and Vyacheslav Volodin. (We wrote an in-depth post on him here.)

Vyacheslav Volodin: He is the Chairman of the State Duma of the Russian Federation. Volodin is a politician in the lower house of the Russian parliament and former deputy prime minister. He belongs to the newer generation of siloviki. He previously worked as an aide to Putin and played a role in his last election campaign. There have been speculations about Volodin being a potential successor if Putin ever stepped down. 

The list of siloviki and Putin's inner circle is quite extensive. Some other important figureheads are:

• Anton Vaino: Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office
• Sergei Lavrov: Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia
• Elvira Nabiullina: Governor of the Bank of Russia

Please note that this list is not exhaustive and the composition of influential figures in the Russian government can vary over time.

WHO COULD REPLACE PUTIN?

The speculation surrounding the future replacement of the President of Russia is a topic of significant interest. Among the names that have emerged, Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president, and Mikhail Mishustin, the current Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, have been discussed. However, two names that come up more frequently are Nikolai Patrushev and his son, Dmitry Patrushev.

Dmitry Patrushev currently holds the position of Minister of Agriculture for the Russian Federation, a position some argue he attained through nepotism and connections rather than experience and merit. Why he is named as a successor, alongside his father is probably due to his younger age and being the "new generation". 

Nikolai Patrushev's prominence stems from being one of the most influential siloviki in Putin's inner circle and being a close friend and ally of the Russian President. Notably, he holds radical views on how Russia should be governed and has expressed opinions about the West that are even more extreme and exaggerated than those of Vladimir Putin.

CONCLUSION 

In conclusion, the intricate web of Putin's inner circle mirrors the complexity of Russia's government itself. These individuals hold the power to govern a vast nation with a population of 143 million. As the war in Ukraine continues its devastating course, the future remains uncertain. 

The upcoming elections in March 2024 will force Putin to make a pivotal decision—whether to risk running for the presidency once more, potentially facing defeat, or to pass on the mantle of the country's most significant role to one of his fellow siloviki. The outcome will shape the path Russia takes in the years to come, leaving us eagerly anticipating the unfolding of events.

References: 

• The Guardian: Putin’s security men: the elite group who ‘fuel his anxieties’
• The National News: Meet Russia's siloviki — Putin's inner circle
• Caspian Reports: Meet the Russian Siloviki - Putin's inner circle
• Business Insider: Nikolai Patrushev — a longtime Putin ally — would 'almost certainly' replace Putin if he falls ill, predicts former British intelligence chief
• BBC: Ukraine conflict: Who's in Putin's inner circle and running the war?
• Politico: After Putin: 12 people ready to ruin Russia next
• RNZ: If Vladimir Putin goes, who's next?