UKRAINE: ANNIVERSARY OF INVASION

The one year anniversary since the start of the Russian illegal invasion of Ukraine is approaching. The statistics are very grim when it comes to the suffering of the war. There was just over an estimated 7,000 civilian casualties in the past year, with almost 12,000 civilians suffering injuries. This included 800 children injured and 430 dead. 

The military casualties have been high on both sides. It's very hard to say how many deaths occurred, as keeping a record in an active war is difficult. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said in December 2022 that around 13,000 Ukrainian soldiers have lost their lives in this deadly war. On the Russian side, it has been a lot higher. It is estimated that the number of Russian troops killed or injured in Ukraine is approaching 200,000. 

A THREE-DAY WAR 

At the beginning of the invasion, some parties such as Belarus, believed that the war would last three or four days. The belief was that Ukrainians will welcome Russian troops with open arms, so that they can be liberated from the "Nazi regime" that was sitting inside the government. Another (false) belief was that Zelenskyy and his government would run away the first change they got, and set up some kind of proxy government in another country. 

#Lukashenko on February, the 6th: If there would be war with #Ukraine, we would take it in 3-4 days!

Lukashenko 3-4 days after the start of the war with Ukraine: Please come and negotiate, we're not getting anywhere. pic.twitter.com/LbQm0SqVes

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) February 28, 2022

WHY DID THE WAR START?

There was many reasons quoted as to why Russia invaded Ukraine. One year ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that the goals of his "special military operation" was to "denazify and demilitarize" Ukraine. He quoted that he wanted to support the newly independent Donbas and Luhansk regions, the two eastern Ukrainian regions that were occupied by Russian proxy forces since 2014. 

One unsaid reason was to topple Ukraine's modern and pro-Western government, lead by President Zelenskyy. This was because an Ukraine that wanted to be in the EU, and supported NATO ascension, was a big threat to Putin. 

The NATO issue was another "reason" that was quoted behind the attack. Putin said that the way that NATO expanded to Russia's borders was a clear threat to Russia. 

In my personal opinion, the biggest reason Putin invaded Ukraine was to "bring it back to Motherland". He knows that his time is limited and he wants to recreate the might of the USSR. After all, in 2005, he said that the collapse of the USSR “was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century”. He also wrote an essay, in July 2021, where he writes things like "Together we have always been and will be many times stronger and more successful. For we are one people."

It was very clear, reading this lengthy prosaic essay, that Mr Putin does not believe that Ukraine is a separate country to Russia, or should be rather.

At the beginning of the war, there were regular protest all over the world in support to Ukraine

HOW HAS THE WAR PROGRESSED

In the first few months of the war, it was very intense. Many people died, many more were displaced and many places were bombed and lying in ruin. Then, in the summer of 2022, Russians retreated the troops away from Kyiv and focused their attention to the Donbas and Eastern Ukraine. 

The fighting has steadily concentrated in that area, with occasional bomb strikes across the whole country. The Russians were not successful in capturing the capital, and were not successful in toppling the regime. The Ukrainian army was able to gain back territories, in the autumn of 2022, in a very successful and swift offensive. 

The way that this war will develop depends highly on the commitment and level of help that the West will provide to Ukraine. Most likely, we will end up with a stalemate for many years to come. 

HAVE PUTIN'S GOALS BEEN ACHIEVED

Looking at the two points above, the answer is a clear no. All that Putin managed to achieve is to create economical struggles due to the harsh sanctions imposed by the West, and he made Russia into a pariah state on the global stage. Europe, by and large, is disengaging from buying Russian oil, and depending on them for energy supplies. 

The European winter was a bit wobbly due to the energy crisis, but I think we will get through to the other end. This will mean a better and more assured energy supply for Europe, and less money to fund the war for the Russian coffers. 

Another thing that Kremlin achieved was to kill and injure many Russian men in this bloody war. This will have consequences for decades to come. Not only from the Russian population's failing trust in their government, but to societal needs. 

For example, there was already a lot more women then men in Russia. With the war, this ratio has become even more disproportionate. This will impact things like the working population, birth rate, and other social factors. 

Mobilization also affected this. Many young men left the country in droves to avoid being drafted to the army. 

Russia's economy has regressed by a decade sure to the impact of the war. Many international firms have finished their operations in Russia, so many hundreds of thousands of jobs have disappeared overnight. The cost of living went higher. People struggle to buy things in Russia, with the small salaries they have. 

WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN 2023?

Like mentioned earlier, the war will probably end up in a stalemate situation. The fighting in the Donbas will continue for some time. Right now, it is predicted that Russia will launch a massive offensive. There are speculations that this has started already, but not on the major scale that was expected.

As the war drags on, Russia's ability to arm the troops diminishes greatly. The latest offensive's troops that were gathered on the invader's border showed that there was a lack of equipment and vehicles to support the army. 

And then we also have to mention Wagner Group. The mercenary troops, filled with criminals from the worst jails in Russia, have been cannon fodder in battles to try to capture certain areas of Eastern Ukraine, such as Bakhmut. Now, there is conflict between owner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the Russian Ministry of Defense. This will also affect how Russia fights. 

With Wagner's troops, there was a bit more freedom to send human meat to the grinder. It will not be possible to do so with Russian military troops. When big piles of dead bodies start to arrive in Russia, it could create huge uproar from the Russian citizens. 

One reason why the Russian people have been so indifferent towards the war is because it has not really affected them. However, once they and their loved ones start to die, it will affect them and they will start caring. It can lead to a revolution against the current Kremlin regime. 

CONCLUSION

Some schools of thought say that this invasion started in 2014, with the occupation of Crimea. I will acknowledge this. Regardless of this, Russia's unjust war has caused too much death and destruction. 

Like I said before, in previous posts, it's critical that the West supports Ukraine with as many weapons and funds as it takes to win the war. We can't let Russia win! 

Slava Ukraini!