UKRAINE: How Russia Takes Advantage of the West

It is safe to say that Russia is losing the war in Ukraine. Up-to-date casualties show that over 120,000 soldiers have been killed in the past 11 months. On top of this, Russia is losing military weapons and equipment on a massive scale. Paired with sanctions from the West and an increasing economic struggle, Russia is finding itself in a position where it might not be able to replenish its stores.

RUSSIA IS LOSING ON A MASSIVE SCALE

It's no secret that the Russian military has problems with low morale, food shortages, and basic first aid supplies. Soldiers are dissatisfied, badly trained, hungry, cold, angry with their government, their superiors and generally fed up with the war. On the other hand, you have Wagner PMC troops that are made up of convicts, foreign fighters and anyone that wishes to make a buck.

Wagner PMC’s owner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is on a media campaign to fight for the upper seat in the Kremlin. Russian President, Mr Vladimir Putin, hides in a bunker and is missing from the spotlight a lot of the time. As we can see, the future for Russia looks rather bleak.

Russia is increasingly using more violent methods in the Russo-Ukrainian war in order to wear down Ukraine and beat them into a corner. They use the same tactics and methods that they used in the war with Georgia and in the conflict in Syria. These are of course things such as:

• bombing hospitals, schools and other civilian infrastructures
• using hypersonic weapons such as Kalibr missiles, that are supposed to be "unstoppable"
• use of thermobaric weapons and cluster munition
• deliberately attacking key infrastructure such as water and electricity plants in majorly populated areas so civilians would suffer from harsh, unlivable conditions
• silently endorsing their military personnel to use fear and terror tactics towards civilians such as beatings, raping and indiscriminate killings
• forcing civilians to go through harsh filtration camps, or enlist in the Russian army against their will 
• stealing Ukrainian citizens, and children, and forcing them to move to Russia against their will

Russia's main battle tactic, at the moment, is to inflict as much suffering and damage as possible to make Ukraine surrender. Putin is betting on two things:

1. Zelenskyy will, eventually, be forced to negotiate peace due to the amount of death and destruction in Ukraine. This is even though Ukraine explicitly said that they will fight to the last man.
2. Western powers will put pressure on Ukraine to negotiate peace because of the large cost of the war, the large cost to human life, and the consequential increasing costs to their own citizens.

Putin is also basing his barbaric war tactics on the reality that Russia suffered no real consequences after previous wars. This is evident from the 2008 war in Georgia, where Russia went in with brutal tactics and forcibly occupied territories that are still under Russian control to this day. The only consequences from that war were that 1) NATO stepped back their support of Ukraine and Georgia ascending to the Alliance and 2) countries condemning Russia verbally. In the end, Georgia lost part of their territory (South Ossetia and Abkhazia were diplomatically recognized by Russia and are now seen to be occupied by them).

Another example is the start of this war, with the 2014 occupation of Crimea. While it's true that there was no bloodshed or even a shot fired when that event took place, it was (and is) still an illegal occupation of sovereign territory. Russia broke international rules. And how did the West react? Some sanctions, a lot of statements to the press about it being bad and illegal, but no major consequences to Russia.

Russia is betting on the fact that the West, and Europe, would rather have peace and the "status quo" back at any cost. They are betting that we have short attention spans, even shorter memories, and that the general population will get fed up quickly with increasing costs due to war. Recent history has proven this to be true more often than not.

In Europe, because of this conflict, we already have increased costs in energy, high inflation, and a high cost of living crisis.

MAKE PEACE AT ANY COST

What Putin is counting on is that eventually the West will get tired of sending weapons to Ukraine. Or, that governments will stop sending funds, equipment and other support due to high costs, and constituents getting tired of supporting a foreign country outside of supporting their own citizens. Because of this, Putin thinks that the West will persuade/pressure Ukraine to negotiate a peace deal as soon as possible.

President Zelenskyy has made it quite clear that Ukraine, and the Ukrainians, want to have the whole of Ukraine back. This includes all the occupied regions of Luhansk and Donetsk and Crimea.

Russia hopes that the West will force Ukraine to make a peace deal. The kind of deal that would appease Ukraine in some small way, so they cede. But most importantly, it will be to Russia's advantage. However, any deals that are made with Russia may be legally binding, but will not be followed by the Kremlin.

Russia has a long history of making international agreements and not following them. For example, in December 1994, they signed the Budapest Memorandum where the Russian Federation promised that they would "respect the signatory's independent and sovereignty in the existing borders" and "refrain from the threat or use of force against the signatory", with one of the signatories being Ukraine.

The Budapest Memorandum was supposed to be a pact where the Russian Federation, United Kingdom and United States would protect Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan if they gave up their nuclear arsenal. However, we can see by today's events that this has not happened. Russia has definitely broken many of the treaty's clauses.

Another example of this is the Minsk agreements whereby Russia promised they would withdraw troops and hard military equipment from Ukraine, and recognized Ukraine as having sovereignty and territorial integrity. Russia did not withdraw their military personnel from the Donbas area, or respected the ceasefire. The Minsk agreements are a good example of a treaty signed by the Russian Federation that are vaguely written and wishy-washy.

My personal fear is that if Ukraine negotiates some kind of peace treaty under duress, it will stop events in the short-term but it would not stop Russia from invading Ukraine again in the future, or attacking some other European nation.

 

DECIMATE RUSSIA

We must not repeat the mistakes we made in previous years, with Russia's war and occupation in Georgia, or the annexation of Crimea. Putin has not minced his intentions when he claimed to have annexed some big chunks of Ukrainian territories through sham referendums and arguing that Ukraine does not exist.

Some Western critics say that we can appease Putin to allow some kind of Ukrainian state to exist, if Russia can keep the illegally annexed territories and if NATO promises to never admit Ukraine in the Alliance (Finlandization won't work here).

Such talks are conducive to Putin's intentions and music to his ears. He is betting that war fatigue, a cold winter with high energy costs and high inflation will break the West's unity of support and make peace negotiations a more desirable outcome. The less likely it is that a quick military victory happens, and longer the war drags on, the greater is the siren call for Western leaders to intervene and pressure Zelenskyy to negotiate and settle on Russia's terms.

However, we should have learned by now that appeasing Russia only fuels its aggression and makes it possible for them to push the boundaries further and further. The West must ensure that we don't give any chances for Russia to do this. The only way is to diminish its military capabilities and decimate their ability to invade another country.