CHINA: WHAT IS HAPPENING IN TAIWAN?

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We had an international furore when United States House of Representatives Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, arrived on a state visit to the island of Taiwan on 3rd August 2022. Her visit caused Beijing to react extremely angry. The visit, according to Pelosi was to ''show that America has unwavering commitment to Taiwan.'' However, China condemned this visit as a threat to their "One-China" policy. This was the highest level state visit of a United States representative in 25 years, so we can see why this caused some friction between the two nations. 

IS TAIWAN PART OF CHINA?

Before we move further, lets look at the history of Taiwan.

This small island off the coast of the Fujian province of China, came under Chinese control in the 17th century, under the Qing dynasty. They annexed the island in 1693, but had to cede it to the Empire of Japan in 1895, when they lost the first Sino-Japanese war.

After the Second World War, the Republic of China, that overthrew the Qing dynasty in 1911, took over the island as part of the Allies of World War II, when Japan surrendered in 1945. Unfortunately, civil war soon recommenced in China. The Republic of China's leadership, led by Chiang Kai-Shek and known as the Kuomintang, were pushed out of the mainland and retreated to Taiwan in 1949.

Taiwan and mainland China with the Taiwan Strait

Meanwhile, in mainland China, the Communists gained control, led by Mao Zedong. They established the People's Republic of China and set up the government seat in Beijing. The Kuomintang set up their own government in Taiwan. Since the 1950s, there has been a military and political stalemate between both sides. This is because both the Republic of China and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) were both claiming to be the official seat of power in the country. 

There was a ceasefire in 1979, after the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis. However, there was not peace treaty signed. As such, ongoing tensions have not been resolved. 

By using this history, the current mainland Chinese Communist Party are quick to point out that this makes Taiwan a Chinese province. However, the island's nationals are adamant that, by using the same history, they can show that Taiwan was never part of the modern Chinese state that was formed in 1911. This was the time they were under Japanese rule. And, at the same time, they were never part of the original Mao Zedong's government. 

WHY IS TAIWAN IMPORTANT TO THE WORLD?

According to the U.S Department of State, Taiwan is an important U.S. partner in "trade and investment, health, semiconductor and other critical supply chains, investment screening, science and technology, education, and advancing democratic values."

Nancy Pelosi with Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen 

The most important thing about Taiwan is that they produce 65% of the global production of microchips. This means that single-handedly, this small island nation can have a ripple effect in our increasingly technological world. The Internet of Things networks would collapse. It would have a massive effect on every industry from agriculture to defence.

If China were to take over Taiwan, it would give them control over one of the most important industries in the world. 

CURRENT TENSIONS AND LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES


Some experts believe that there could be a push in the CCP to use Nancy Pelosi's trip as an excuse to change the status quo between China and Taiwan. Tensions are certainly high currently with a military exercise going on right in Taiwan's territorial waters, with live ammunition and missiles.


Xi Jingping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party


However, it is speculated that Beijing will direct their retaliation more towards Taiwan's economy and people. Even before Pelosi arrived, the Chinese government announced a ban on more than 100 Taiwanese imports. This was condemned by Taiwanese politicians as a move to "weaponize trade".


Another thing that China did was to shut down access to the communication and social media app, Weibo. This is significant because it is estimated that around 582 million people use this very popular site.

Other things that China can do is launch cyber attacks and information warfare to further intimidate the Taiwanese population. It could also use this visit to make changes to the military power in the Taiwan Strait, by adding more military power and gaining more advantage in that area.

One reason why Beijing reacted so negatively to Pelosi's visit could be that they will use this as a pretext to reject the current Biden administration's proposal to put "guardrails" on the United States - China competition so that it can be managed responsibly.


WHAT WILL AMERICA DO?


America continues to relate that the Washington is not supportive of an independent Taiwan or that they are looking to change the status quo between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. The United States Secretary of State, Antony J. Blinken, called out China and said their response was "flagrantly provocative."

John Kirby, the White House national security spokesman, said that United States will not be intimidated by Beijing's threats. He also reiterated that there was no reason for such an extreme reaction from China in response to Pelosi's visit.

United States will continue to support Taiwan, maintain the current status quo in the region and keep defending a free and open Indo-Pacific region. They will maintain open lines of communication with China, even if they are looking to close many channels themselves. Washington has made it clear that they will not respond to China's "sabre-rattling".


CONCLUSION 


The situation between United States of America and China has always been frosty. But now, with the current situation in the Taiwan Strait, it has become even more frozen. The war in Ukraine is also at the forefront in people's minds, so a potential proxy war between China and USA worries everyone on the global stage. Furthermore, a successful strike Taiwan's ability to produce and export electronics such as microchips would have devastating consequences globally.

On top of this, Taiwan is being intimidated with military force by China. This creates anxiety and fear in people. It can deter businesses to invest, and it causes delays in exports and imports into and out of Taiwan. China is not only flexing their power with force, but waging an economic stranglehold over the breakaway island. 

In the military exercise that ended 7th August, Taiwan counted that China deployed as many as 66 warplanes and 14 warships in the nearby areas. Those areas include Taiwanese territorial waters. In addition, there was 22 aircrafts that crossed the line dividing the Taiwan Strait. 

As we can see, this is indeed a worrying situation brewing up!

References: 

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