UKRAINE: HOW WILL THE WAR END?

The war in Ukraine is fast approaching the fourth month mark. The length, bloodiness and increasing cost to normal citizens and various Western allies are starting to take a toll. Solidarity with Ukraine has not faltered from the many countries that are constantly pumping them with weapons, humanitarian aid, and various other help. However, the looming global recession and an impending global hunger crisis are starting some to question: "When and how will this war end?"

Many Ukrainian men had to wave goodbye to their families and join the fight (Picture: Telegram, Zelensky Official)

Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy is quoted as saying that this ''war will be won on the battlefield, but ended by negotiations''. The problem with this thinking is that:

1. Russia has a bigger army capability that makes it hard for Ukraine to overpower them: Zelenskyy's advisory team recently said that Ukraine has received only 10% of the requested army equipment from Western allies. They have also been rejected constantly with the proposal to have fighter jets provided to them, or have a NATO-implemented no-fly zone. 
2. Russia and Ukraine have different viewpoints when it comes to negotiations: Currently, the negotiations talks have been frozen until further notice. Previously, when there was some kind of discussions going on, Russia had a laundry list of demands that Ukraine would not budge on. Zelenskyy has been quite adamant that Ukraine will settle for nothing less than all Russian forces out of Ukraine and all Ukrainian territories liberated from Russian occupation. 
3. Putin's goals in this war: While the main, original reason for the war was to ''liberate Ukraine from Nazis", those goals posts have moved constantly in the time the battle has raged on. These days, it is believed that Putin will not stop the fighting until he has either decimated Ukraine as a country, or has taken over a majority of the Donbass and the coast of Ukraine. 

COST OF WAR

The first thing we should explore is what would happen when, and if, the war drags on. Both sides are getting exhausted. Russia is losing more soldiers, more weapons, more equipment. With each day that goes by, they are also facing an economical war with the West's crippling sanctions. Russia is spending an estimated 900 million USD per day on the war. 

Ukraine is also losing men and equipment at a fast pace. It was quoted that they are losing some 60 to 200 soldiers per day in the Donbass. The latest estimates of the costs to rebuild Ukraine after the war were around the 600 billion USD mark. Now, it's probably much higher. 

Besides this, the war is causing a massive international hunger crisis as Ukraine is not able to export grains like before. It is one of the world's biggest wheat producers. Before the invasion, Ukraine was exporting up to 6 tonnes of grains. However, after the invasion, it had fallen to around 1 tonne. This means that those countries dependant to the Ukrainian exports are facing falling food deliveries and citizens that are left starving. These are mostly based in the Middle East and Africa. 

VIABLE SCENARIOS 

Many experts and netizens have chipped in their two cents in regards to how the war will end in Ukraine. The most talked about scenarios are: 

1. Russia goes hard and wins: 

At this point, we can clearly see that the ''special operation'' is not going as planned for Russia. Not only are they incurring heavy losses, but they also don't have full army capabilities because this is not a war. If Russia wants to have some kind of a victory, it would have to declare war and martial law in the country. Then, they would have to mobilise conscripts and all reservists. This would create a massive backlash for Vladimir Putin. 

People in Russia are already fed up because they are losing their jobs, finances are thin, and their loved ones are dying on the battlefield. If Russia would call martial law in effect, there is potential that the population will revolt against the current Kremlin regime. 

2. Russia pulls the troops: 

They are suffering embarrassingly, but pulling troops out of Ukraine without any solid gains is anathema for Vladimir Putin. Not only is it against his values and vision, but it can spell the end of the Putin reign in the Kremlin. 

From informal reports, the siloviki are already chomping at the bit due to the war and the sanctions. All sorts of rumours have been floating about such as Putin surviving an assassination attempt, or that there is planned some kind of palace coup. 

I don't believe this scenario has any value. It goes against the Russian playbook. They would appear weak and lose face. 

3. The war reaches a "stalemate"; the West pushes for  negotiations: 

The war will drag on for a few more months until both sides are exhausted, low on ammunition, weapons and man power. Russia will continue to try to gain territory and maybe achieve something. Ukraine will be repelling their attacks and continue to defend their territory. The war will culminate in a constant fight in various pockets of the front. Casualties will continue to build up. Money will continue to fund the war. Prices and cost of living will continue to rise. Gas will get more and more expensive. 

Unfortunately, for the average consumer, there will come a point when they are fed up with the rising inflation and cost of living. Life will become a constant struggle. This will lead to a sharp rise in dissatisfaction targeted to governments and people in charge. Politicians will take this as a sign that the strategy needs to change. This means that the financial support that Ukraine has recieved so far from the West will peeter out. And it may be that Western leaders start pushing the Ukrainian government to accept Russia's terms of negotiations. 

In my opinion, this could be a likely scenario. Unfortunately, it's a sad reality that money controls everything. Now the gas prices are so high that the citizens in many countries are beyond frustrated. These people are voters, and politicians want to make their electorate roll happy. 

4. Ukraine wins:

The last scenario is the best one in my opinion, and that scenario includes that Ukraine will win the war. This is a long shot, due to the limitation of weaponry and ammunition that they have. However, the Ukrainian army is fighting really well. Even now, after many month of fighting. And they have the added bonus that Ukraine is in a full scale war, so the martial law is in effect. They have called every available conscript and reservist to fight. People are inspired to defend their homes, so the motivation is very high to keep on fighting and to win. 

CONCLUSION 

I really hope that the fighting will stop very soon. However, the harsh reality is that it probably won't. The battles in the Donbass are some of the bloodiest that Ukraine has faced so far. Russia is pulling out all stops and they don't have much to lose. Zelenskyy has been begging for more lethal equipment, more ammunition. Ukraine really needs long range missiles  and planes to be able to gain air superiority. 

The Western allies are scared to provide such weapons that Ukraine are asking for. The leaders don't want to rock the boat and embarrass Putin. Especially, France and Germany have always been on the footing that Ukraine should try to have civil peace talks. Like mentioned, the two sides are not negotiating now due to the ongoing conflict between them. 

Reference:

• World-Grain.com - Ukraine grain exports reach 47.2 million tonnes so far for 2021-22
• EuroNews: Five ways the war in Ukraine could end | View
• Al Jazeera: 100 days in, UN says Russia-Ukraine war ‘will have no winner’
• BBC - Ukraine war: How long can the Western consensus hold?
• GIS - How Ukraine can emerge from war independent and prosperous