FINLAND: The Great NATO Debate

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The debate to join NATO in Finland has been ongoing for many years. However, the recent invasion of Ukraine has prompted renewed interest in joining the Alliance. While the government is taking the time to debate the pros and cons of becoming part of NATO, Russia has started an active information campaign to confuse and delay this decision. Like we explored in the previous post, a video was posted recently showing Russian military equipment coming to the Finnish border. 

In this post I will attempt to break down:

  • what are some advantages and disadvantages of Finland joining NATO 
  • the timetable this decision will be made on 
  • what are some guidelines of NATO that Finland must fit and how they are doing now
  • how it will impact Russia 
  • what are some of that Russia has done and said so far to delay this decision 
ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF FINLAND JOINING NATO 

Finland has largely tried to stay neutral in the past 80 years since the Second World War. However, changing dynamics since the post-Cold War era has meant that Finland has aligned itself increasingly towards the West and NATO. Membership into the Alliance is seen by the Finnish government as a way to adapt to the more dangerous situation that we are facing right now with Russia. 

Of course the biggest advantage of joining NATO, for Finland, is the protection that Article 5 brings. As we saw in Ukraine, countries that are aligned with NATO in a non-membership status may get help financially and through military equipment. However, no boots will be put on the soil of any non-member. 

Finland's western neighbour, Sweden, is also thinking whether to join. Both countries have strong, working relations. This means, probably if one joins, the other will follow. 

Finnish President, Sauli Niinistö and Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg

A huge disadvantage for becoming a member is the chilled relations with Russia. Finland's eastern neighbour has protested vocally for many years that they will retribute harshly if NATO membership is pursued. Their threats have grown, in frequency and scale, in the past few weeks.

TIMETABLE OF DECISION

Finland is taking a cautious attempt at joining the Alliance. There are speculations that the government will put the application for membership to NATO in summer. 

In March, there was two citizen initiatives to get this issue discussed in the Parliament. On April 13, the government submitted a detailed report to the Parliament  about ''fundamental changes'' in the Finnish security and foreign policy due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The report found that the invasion was a clear attempt at destabilizing and jeopardizing the security and stability in Europe and the Nordic region.   

Finnish Prime Minister, Sanna Marin

After the contents of these reports are discussed by the MPs in the government, it is expected that the NATO application will be submitted before the summer. Sweden is also speculated to work on the same timeline as Finland. 

NATO GUIDELINES

NATO has an ''open door'' policy. This means that any European country is welcome to apply for membership. The main criteria is that these aspiring countries have to be "in a position to further the Washington Treaty and to increase safety in the Euro-Atlantic area". 

Eager countries to join NATO also have to meet stringent political, economical and military goals that are put in place to ensure that they will contribute to the Alliance, as well as benefit from it. On their part, NATO creates a Membership Action Plan (MAP) for potential members. This is to guide the aspiring countries on to be able to meet those goals and for NATO to provide assistance and support. 

Professional soldier in the Finnish Defence Forces

Finland and NATO have a very close partnership. They share similar values, have regular political discussions, and military cooperation in terms of peacekeeping operations and military exercises. Finland is one of the most active NATO partners, and they have done very good cooperation with peacekeeping missions in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Balkans.

If they apply for NATO membership, there is a strong chance they will be accepted. This is because Finland has a strong army, one of the strongest in Europe, and their ideals, modus operandi and political system align well with NATO's. 

One part of NATO membership is that any aspiring country must be approved by all NATO members. Most NATO members have been very vocal with supporting, and even pressuring, Finland to come join the Alliance. One wild card in thus equation was Hungary. This is because of their support for Russia. But it seems they too are offering their support to Finland, according to a tweet by Finnish President, Sauli Niinistö. 

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR RUSSIA AND THEIR REACTIONS?

Russia has not reacted well to the news that Finland and Sweden are considering NATO membership. They have tried many different tactics in the past few weeks to try to change the mood in the nation. Some examples of these:
  • On 8th April, a Russian plane violated Finnish airspace 
  • Last week, on 14 April, Russia threatened that if this step is taken, a ''rebalance'' will have to be done in the Baltics. They have threatened everything from nuclear weapons escalation to an increase in air, ground and naval forces on the border with Finland.
  • The video we discussed last week, where it gives the impression that military equipment is being taken to Finnish border.
  • There has been an increase in so-called ''Russian trolls'' on social media, in the news, and other outlets where they can spread Russian misinformation and try to change the public's opinion and also the governments.
CONCLUSION

In my opinion, Finland and Sweden joining NATO would be the best thing for Europe at the present moment. The unprovoked invasion in Ukraine has showed most European countries that it's very important to be covered by Article 5. It is understandable that current NATO members do not want to risk starting Third World War over a non-member country. Finland has a very good chance to be accepted because it is a very strong candidate and they would be a great benefit to NATO. 

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