UKRAINE: Will Russia really use thermobaric weapons?

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As we get into the second week of the Ukraine - Russia conflict, concerns are rising that the aggressors will deploy harmful thermobaric weapons, or so called ''vacuum bombs''. If these are used, the human cost and environmental damage will be insurmountable. Fears are that the Kremlin is getting increasingly frustrated with the slow pace of the conflict and will escalate offences to make Ukraine fall. In this post we will have a look at these awful explosives, which have been dubbed the ''poor man's nuclear weapon''.

WHAT ARE THERMOBARIC WEAPONS?

Also known as aerosol bombs or fuel air explosives, thermobaric weapons are two-staged munitions designed to use the oxygen in the air to explode. Fuel air explosives are the worst type of thermobaric weapons.

A Russia thermobaric MRLS system
Unlike typical explosives, that have a mixture of fuel and oxidizing agent that would cause them to ignite, these vacuum bombs are just filled with fuel and rely on the oxygen to detonate them.

After it explodes, the fuel inside the incendiary device is released into the atmosphere as cloud and then it is ignited, causing a colossal blast. After the detonation, and subsequent shockwaves, there is a vacuum effect in the air as the bomb sucks all the oxygen away.

The shock wave from the explosion lasts longer than conventional weapons and it is capable to vaporise human bodies. The damage to people is worse in fox holes, tunnels, caves, and bunkers.

The weapons can come in varied sizes, and for different uses. In the case of Ukraine, they will be used to cause maximum damage to the city and destroy the human lives that could be hiding in bunkers or walking on the streets.

WHAT TYPES OF THERMOBARIC WEAPONS DOES RUSSIA HAVE?

Russia has a variety of weapons such as:
  • Fuel air explosive (FAE) filled bombs
  • TV guided fuel air explosive filled bombs
  • Cluster bombs and cluster bombs filled with fuel air explosive filled cluster bomblets
  • Smerch 300mm 12 tube rocket-launchers 9A52-2
  • Reactive surround warheads
  • Anti-tank guided missiles
  • Helicopter mounted rockets with FAE warheads
  • Aircraft mounted rockets with FAE warheads
  • TOS-1 220 mm Multiple Rocket Launcher System (MRLS) that is reported to fire 220mm rockets with FAE warheads
  • Infantry flame-throwers
  • AS-11 and AS-12 rocket warheads with mostly classified information on the details.
Russian thermobaric MRLS systems seen in Ukraine 
WHY ARE THESE WEAPONS SO HORRIFIC?

These weapons are absolutely terrifying because of the way that they affect compared to conventional weapons. The pressure wave caused by the blast and the following rarefaction (vacuum) can rupture people's lungs. If there is a malfunction in the fuel cloud, and it does not detonate, the victims will have severe burns and inhale the burning fuel, which will scorch their lungs.

The fuels that are used to create thermobaric weapons are highly toxic and can cause as much lethal damage as most chemical agents. Fuels such as ethylene oxide and propylene oxide are extremely dangerous if inhaled.

Thermobaric bomb blast in a Russian military test 
Another problem with these types of weapons is that, while those close to the hit point are annihilated, those on the edges are likely to suffer damage as well. The injuries would mostly be internal but can still be fatal. Injuries that can happen are:
  • burst eardrums
  • broken bones
  • crushed inner ear organs
  • concussions
  • rupturing of the lungs, and other organs
  • blindness
  • dislodged eyeballs
Speculations are that this kind of blast will not cause much damage to the brain, therefore victims are not going to go unconscious. This means that they will be fully aware of their suffering for several seconds to minutes while they are suffocating to death.

WHERE HAS THESE WEAPONS BEEN USED?

The origins of these weapons can be traced back to the Second World War, when Germany used them. After that, they lost popularity until 1960s, when America used them in the Vietnam War. It has been alleged that USA also used these in the Gulf War in 1991.

The Soviets implemented these explosives in the Soviet-Afghan War, in the Panjshir Valley, Afghanistan, in the 1980s. Unverified reports have come that Russia has also used ground-level thermobaric missiles in Chechnya in 1993.

Damage caused by FAE missiles is a conflict zone
Both America and England used thermobaric weapons in Afghanistan against the Taliban in the early 2000s.

In Syria, both the Russian and the Syrian government used these types of explosives in their battles with insurgents. Some sources say that this was Russia’s testing grounds for new and improved military equipment as it is cheaper to “test” weapons and train staff in Syria, then it would be in Russia.

WILL THEY BE USED IN UKRAINE?

Thermobaric weapons have been seen in Ukraine, moved by Russians from the Belgorod area. There are no confirmed reports that the missiles have been used yet. The Ukrainian Ambassador to USA, Oksana Markarova, has accused Russia of using thermobaric weapons on 28 February 2022. The alleged explosion happened in the north-eastern town of Okhtyrka in the Sumy Region of Ukraine, where seventy soldiers died because of the blast. However, US officials say they cannot confirm whether a thermobaric weapon from the video.

Fears are that as the invasion drags on, and Russia gets more irritated with the Ukrainians, they will deploy these types of explosives to speed up the war in Russia's favour and cause the maximum amount of damage to Ukrainians. These could be deployed in the bigger cities such Kyiv, Kharkov, Kherson, and Mariupol that are being encircled by the aggressor army and defended bravely by the Ukrainians.

Indiscriminate attacks, meaning attacks where both civilians and military are injured or killed because of the explosion, are illegal under the rules of war and Geneva Convention. While these weapons are not illegal, the party that uses them must exercise extreme caution when detonating them in urban or populated areas.

FAE thermobaric bomb explosion in Syria 
As we can see, the human suffering and damage would be akin to Second World War. I do not see how Europe could sit out and watch from the sidelines if thousands of civilians start dying in an awful, painful way. European cities will be stormed by citizens protesting that their Western governments take military action to stop Russia further killing innocent people. The argument is that it could lead to a nuclear war or World War III if NATO gets involved.

We must stop this conflict before it gets to the point of no return. If you have family and friends in the bigger cities of Ukraine, please urge them to leave to safer places. These weapons can get inside bunkers, homes, any enclosed space. They will cause a massive amount of damage and suffering.

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