RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT: The Psychology of War

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We are now four weeks into the Russia-Ukraine war. Four weeks into civilians getting killed. Children dying. Millions of refugees spread around Europe. And many more affected by this devastating war. A war caused by Vladimir Putin. A war he thought would last three days.

Beautiful Mauripol destroyed by Russian shelling 

The motivation to fight is very high for the Ukrainian people. Men and women have gathered to defend their land, with many refusing to leave. Over 320,000 Ukrainians have returned to their homeland to take part in the fight. Nearly 20,000 international people have volunteered to fight for the Ukrainian side from other countries. However, as the conflict drags on and reaches a stalemate, the general mood of the population will also stagnate. One thing that we must consider is that this war will last as long as one of the fighting sides have energy to fight.

ROCK BOTTOM ENEMY MORALE

Captured Russian soldiers

Russian soldiers’ morale is extremely low, and this was from the very beginning. This has been due to several reasons such as:
  • Poor information: A lot of captured Russian soldiers have openly said that they didn't know that they have been sent to Ukraine to fight in a war. When interrogated, they have told the Ukrainian officials that they thought that they were going to military exercises.
  • Lack of Experience: Some of the troops sent to war were conscripts, or used to be, before they were forced to sign paperwork to be recruited to the paid army. Many of these are young men that never wanted to be in the Russian defence force and don't want to be on the front.
  • Lack of supplies: It would seem Putin's advisors told him that this war would take a few days. Some believed that it would take roughly 72 hours to take over Kyiv. Because now it is over four weeks, a lot of the planned supplies have run out. Unfortunately, for the Russian soldiers, this has meant that they have been left cold, hungry, and stranded. Reports have surfaced all over Western media of Russian soldiers begging for food, water, and fuel from the Ukrainians.
  • Bad timing, and equipment: The end of February in Ukraine means that the ice and snow melts away to mud and water. This has caused Russian tanks to get stuck in the soft ground and their operators stranded. Other issues have been badly equipped troops against the more technologically advanced Ukrainian resistance.
This lack of enthusiasm for fighting has played in the hands of the Ukrainian defence forces very well. Their success has been far superior to what experts have predicted. They have killed thousands of Russian soldiers, damaged billions of dollars worth of military equipment and have stalled the enemy's advancement.

Many Russian fighters have also deserted their posts or surrendered. Ukraine has about 562 war prisoners to date, quoted by Iryna Vereshchuk, who is the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine.

Iryna Vereshchuk, Deputy Prime Minister

UKRAINE HAS HIGH HOPES

Ukrainians have had high morale since the start of the war. It is waning slightly now, as this conflict gets longer. This is understandable, with the huge death toll and now constant shelling of many areas by the invading force. However, the general mood of the defence is still focused on victory. Resistance is very high even in the more occupied towns, like Kherson. The population organise peaceful protests, affirming their belonging to Ukraine and asking the Russians to go home.

A few things contribute to this high morale which include:
  • Their basic needs are met: Ukrainians have rallied together as a community. Volunteers that are unable to take part in the fighting are working in other ways such as making food for troops, handling logistics, scouting the city, and many other ways. 
  • Trust in equipment: International support has been united in terms of providing Ukraine with the necessary, and suitable equipment for defending their territories. Before the war started, the defence forces were also regularly training with NATO and European allies such as the British and US militaries. 
  • Believing in the cause: The Ukrainian citizens have longed to join NATO and European Union for a very long time. This means that Ukraine will fight tooth and nail against being forced under the oppressive regime of Vladimir Putin. 
  • Correct information: Ukraine has many allies providing direct military intelligence to help them fight the enemy effectively. This has helped with getting massive strategic successes and throwing a huge blow to the Russian military equipment and supplies. This encourages people to believe that there is a good change that Ukraine will win the war. 
Other differences, between the two sides, is the leadership of the countries and the casualties. Like we covered last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is a massive asset in the fight against this invasion. His resilience and words of hope strengthens the country. He visits hospitals to check on injured civilians and has recognised bravery and distinguished service by awarding medals to soldiers. Zelensky is not afraid, and that defiance rubs off on everyone else.

Ukrainian Defence Forces 

Vladimir Putin acts like an extreme autocrat. He is scared and isolated in his reclusive bunker. When he meets with his underlings, the so-called siloviks, they are kept meters away from him at massive, comical tables. The distrust and suspicion in the Kremlin can be seen even by a blind man!

The casualties are another thing that affects how both sides see this conflict. It is very hard to know how many are lost in battle, but the rough estimates are that Russian death toll is at around 7,000 servicemen since February 24. This is according to American estimates. Ukrainians have a figure that is double that, 14,440. We can say that this is maybe a bit higher than the reality. On the other side, Ukraine has lost about 1,700 brave souls in this senseless war.

WHAT ABOUT THE LONG-TERM?

The unfortunate reality is that this situation may drag on for months, or years even. This will be the ultimate factor that decides who will win this war. Russia is already preparing for a long, static conflict. This has been going on in the Donbas region since 2014. For eight years, there has been periodic fighting, which has meant that the ceasefire that was agreed in the Minsk agreements was null and void even before the ink dried on the treaty.

Damaged Mariupol

The Ukrainian resistance starts to weaken due to high casualties and human suffering as this conflict extends longer. We can see what is happening in places like Mariupol, where people are sieged in. There is shelling day and night, with humanitarian corridors blocked. No food or water is allowed to enter the conflict zone. Civilians are dying, injured and they don’t have medicine. This is a deliberate tactic used by the invading force to weaken the resilience of the population and make them submit.

President Zelensky has said that ceasefire talks are the key to finding long-term peace. However, it requires that both parties come to the table ready to compromise. These talks are currently ongoing through online contact. They are talking about security deals, ceasefire, and troops withdrawal. Ukraine is not ready to compromise on any territorial requests. Zelensky has been constantly vehement that Ukrainians will not accept any peace deals that require them to give up any part of their land.

Another aspect we should look is that Russia is losing a lot of high-ranking military leaders. They have already lost six generals killed in action. As this war goes on, more generals and these top leaders will be forced on the front lines and will be subjected to death or imprisonment. Along with the other aspects we discussed earlier, it lowers the morale of the Russian soldiers even lower. Eventually, these troops will have no effective leaders to get them to act, so they will just surrender or defect on a bigger scale.

CONCLUSION

We also need to work on our endurance. Everyone needs to understand this conflict will be prolonged in one way or another. We need to actively support sanctions, humanitarian aid, military aid, and the Ukrainian people. A lot of countries are suffering right now with high prices, difficulties with travelling and other inconveniences that were not present before the war. While life has gotten harder for the average person, it is much harder for the Ukrainians fighting the invading Russians. 

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