This week things have heated up in Ukraine. We have been sitting on the edge of our seats, those of us who are following this conflict. Russia has been building up the troops, moving hardware and keeping the world guessing. What is the next move? When is the next move? What are they even hoping to achieve?
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| Ukrainian troops training for potential conflict with Russia |
These questions can only be answered by one man, and one man only: Mr Vladimir Putin, the master puppeteer of the Russian Federation. He is the key to peace in Europe, or a certain bloodbath for both Ukraine and for Russia. How many young people, innocent people, have to keep dying in Ukraine, from all sides, before we can see Mr Putin happy? In our last post, we established over 14,000 people died in the Donbass conflict so far since 2014. People keep dying there even in present times because the conflict has not finished.
MERCENARIES IN UKRAINE
There is chatter that dozens of Wagner Group mercenaries have been deployed from Africa to Eastern Ukraine. This is not easily verified, but totally plausible. We know that in 2014, in Crimea, the notorious mercenary group was the emerging force amongst many competitors. They outlasted several other Russian PMCs who sought fame and success in the war zone. These mercenaries were tasked with:
- frontal attacks on the Ukrainian armed forces
- urban fighting
- intelligence gathering
- sabotage and subversive operations
- deploying fake information campaigns
- psychological warfare
One can say that 2014 Ukraine was a playground for these Russian PMCs, especially the Wagner Group, to test out what worked and what didn't. It was also a way for the Russian government to try out how to use these non-state actors in such a way that it benefited Mother Russia, but deflected blame away from them.
I suspect that 2022 Ukraine is no different. Wagner Group contract soldiers, along with Spetznas troops, are probably already in Ukraine to deploy similar tactics to 2014. What I have found studying military activities and war is that history often repeats itself. What happened in the past will happen in the future. The playbook does not change, just the tactics. As the technology advances, so do the techniques. But, the basics always stay the same.
CYBER WARFARE
Make no mistake, Ukraine is under attack since the evening of 15 February, just as predicted. However, instead of bullets and bombs, we have cyber attacks on various government websites and financial website.
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| Message appearing on Ukrainian government websites yesterday |
The websites of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry and Armed Services, Emergency Services, Foreign Affairs and Educational Ministry were attacked. Also, financial institutions Privatbank and Oschadbank were having website issues. The sources was a DDOS attack with attackers unknown, or if known not revealed by authorities. Kyiv suspects it was Russia.
This is the future of how wars start. Cyber warfare to a degree that impacts a country's defence and economy can be considered an act of war. Of course, as it is a new form, probably unused in many cases, countries have a hard time recognising it as such. And, how can you send troops in battle over an internet issue? Most people don't understand an enemy attack worthy of retaliation unless you can see the physical damage.
WHAT ELSE CAN WE EXPECT?
This post is my opinion and viewpoint on this matter. I believe that Russia will launch an attack on Ukraine. I mean they already did with the cyber attack from yesterday, but I think that we will see the Russian army and tanks crossing the border into Ukraine. This will not be done in a bombastic fashion like the United States predicts. I don't think that Kyiv will be taken down. This is too much for Europe and too much for the Russian people.
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| ''Our opinion is that what is going on in Donbass is genocide!'' Vladimir Putin at a press conference 15.2.2022 |
Mr Putin still has to think about the Russian population's opinion. After all, when they start seeing young men in body bags being flown home, after months of deployment, mass riots will start. I believe that public opinion of full-fledged attack on Ukraine is very low.
Most likely what will happen is a continuation of conflict in Eastern Ukraine. Russia will create some kind of false flag operations where they will say that Russia must defend Russian nationals against the ''genocide'' that is occurring in Eastern Ukraine. After that, the Russian troops will come and a war will break out. To create peace, Kyiv will have to come up with some sort of peace agreement with Russia. This may, or may not, include Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky to step down. Once he does, there will be a change of government, and it can even be to a pro-Russian one.
The other option is that Europe and USA come to some sort of agreement that NATO will not expand and fully give in to the demands of the Russian Federation. This would solve the problem in the short run, but not in the longer timeframe ahead. I say this because democracy will be at risk if Russia thinks that they can do whatever they want and the consequence is that they get whatever they want fulfilled.
Giving into demands now would be a slippery slope to other countries, such as Finland and Sweden, to also be denied NATO membership. Of course, especially in Finland's case, I believe that once NATO membership comes to the table, Russia will spew fire and blood. More so, possibly, then they are doing with Ukraine at the moment.
CONCLUSION
My conclusions are simple. We will face war in Europe, one way or another, in the coming days to coming years. This is a situation that has been brewing up for decades now. We have known all along what Mr Putin wanted. He has made it clear. The real question now is how far will the West let him go before we take a firm stance? How much is peace, democracy and a fundamental right to exist as a sovereign nation worth to us? Are we okay to let other bigger countries dictate what happens in smaller countries?
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