THE MINSK AGREEMENTS: What are they and why is Russia pushing them so much?

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With Ukraine still plummeting towards war, Russia keeps lamenting that the European Union and NATO must make the bullied Eastern European country agree to the terms in the Minsk agreements. However, what exactly are they? Why are they so important to Russia? How does Ukraine see these treaties? Well, these questions don't really have a simple answer, so let's have a look in today's blog post. 

THE MINSK PROTOCOL

The Minsk agreements are a series of pacts created to end the war in the Donbass region of Ukraine. The Trilateral Contact Group (Ukraine, Russia, and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)) wrote the Minsk Protocol in 2014. After a lot of discussion, the Trilateral Contact Group and representatives of the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic, which were non-recognised at that stage, came to some sort of consensus.

The Normandy Format leaders (France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia) with President Lukashenko of Belarus 

The agreement did not bring peace in the warring regions, like previously thought. They had to go back to the drawing board and produce another treaty, called Minsk II. The parties signed it on February 12, 2015. This was also not successful at stopping the conflict, but all parties agreed that it will be the basis for future disagreements.

The Minsk Protocol holds twelve main points that the parties decided:
  1. Ensure an immediate bilateral ceasefire of weapons.
  2. Ensure the monitoring and verification of the ceasefire by the OSCE.
  3. Decentralize power, including by enacting the ''Law of Special Status'', that dictates the interim status of local self-government in certain area of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
  4. Ensure permanent monitoring on the Ukrainian-Russian State border and verification by OSCE, along with setting up a security area on the border regions of Ukraine and the Russia Federation.
  5. Immediate release of all hostages and unlawfully detained persons.
  6. Implement a law that will prohibit convicting and prosecuting people in connection to events that happened in certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions
  7. Continue the inclusive national dialogue
  8. Adopt measures that will make the humanitarian situation in the Donbass better.
  9. Ensure that there will be early elections held per the ''Law of Special Status'', on the interim status of local self-governance in certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
  10. Remove military formations, military weapons, troops, and all mercenaries from Ukraine's territory.
  11. Revive economy in the Donbass by implementing a targeted programme and to help the region return to vital activity.
  12. Supply personal guarantees for the participants of the consultations.
Two weeks after the agreement was signed, there was still fighting going on in the region, so a more comprehensive memorandum was drafted to clarify how the Minsk Protocol would be implemented.
  • Banning of combat planes to fly over the security zone
  • Withdraw all foreign mercenaries from the conflict area
  • All offensive operations were banned
  • A 30-kilometer buffer zone was created, and the respective opponents had to pull all weaponry behind those borders (so fifteen kilometres from each side of the border line).
  • OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine would be tasked with watching the implementation of the Minsk Protocol.
Despite all this diplomacy, and the Minsk Protocol in place, there was another horrible conflict in Donbass between the Ukrainian forces and the separatists backed by Russia. The Second Battle of Donetsk Airport raged between 28 September to 21 January 2015. The parties were fighting for control of the airport, which was the last bastion held by Ukraine in that region. DPR forces were successful in capturing the location. However, both sides suffered badly and there was a lot of causalities.

Pro-Russian separatists pose with a picture of Joseph Stalin at a checkpoint near the Sergey Prokofiev International Airport in Donetsk November 18, 2014.
ANTONIO BRONIC/REUTERS
MINSK II

It was clear that something else had to be done to bring peace to Donbass, so Minsk II came into place. The leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany, and France (the so-called Normandy Format) met at another summit in Minsk, Belarus to discuss a new package of measures. Negotiations started on 11 February 2015 and lasted whole night. Germany's foreign minster is quoted to have said the talks were ''very difficult''.

The contents of the Minsk II agreement can be read here in full. It is quite like the original Minsk Protocol, but more extensively detailed. The reaction to the latest batch of demands unto Ukraine was met with mixed emotions. It was criticised in Western media as being ''highly complicated'' and ''very fragile''.

The implementation of Minsk II partly worked. There was a ceasefire on 15 February as agreed, however there were still some individual fights going on in some areas of the conflict zone. On 16th February, there was still fighting going on between DPR separatists and Ukrainian forces in Debaltseve. Both sides refused to give up their heavy weaponry. Eventually, the Ukrainians had to give up and left the town in charge of separatist rebels on 18 February.

By end of February, the forces and military equipment started to withdraw from the borders and conflict areas. Ukraine reported there was no casualties in the period 24 to 26 February. This had not occurred since the beginning of 2015.

WHY ARE MINSK AGREEMENTS IMPORTANT?

Since Minsk II was signed, both parties (Russia and Ukraine) are accusing each other of violating the terms of the agreement. Russia is accusing Ukraine to not implementing the laws as agreed and for trying to reintegrate Crimea and Donbass into Ukraine, which goes against the terms of the Minsk agreements. In turn, Ukraine is accusing Russia of amassing troops and mercenaries in Donbass, pouring heavy military weapons, and having ''command-and-control'' links with DPR and LPR.

Current Ukrainian President, Mr Volodymyr Zelensky

They are important because these agreements are the most recent documentation that Russia has agreed to, and signed, that confirm Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial right. It is also imperative proof for the West that Russia did not follow the terms of the agreement, therefore the strong sanctions can remain in place. These sanctions must continue, and even be tightened, if we are to end the war with Ukraine before it gets too bad.

WHO IS ACTUALLY VIOLATING THE TERMS IN THE AGREEMENTS?

Ukraine has implemented the terms of the Minsk agreement in as much as they can with Russia still occupying (illegally) the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk. As we can see, in the Minsk Protocol and Minsk II, there is no mention that these two regions are recognised as independent states, they are just regions with a special status. This has been implemented with the passed ''Law of Special Status'', that was voted in the Ukrainian parliament on 17 March 2015. They have also been given constitutional amendments, local elections, and amnesty as per the consensus of the Minsk accords. There were no talks about granting the Donbass independency as its own country, therefore it is still part of Ukraine.

Russia is the one, in effect, violating the terms of the agreement that it has signed. They are still occupying Ukrainian territory, which they insist must be free. So far, Russia has issued more than 200,000 Russian passports to the people living in the DPR (Donetsk People's Republic) and LPR (Luhansk People's Republic). The Russian Duma is soon to consider a bill that will formally recognise these two territories as independent according to Russian law.

HOW CAN EUROPE AND USA PUT PRESSURE BACK ONTO RUSSIA?

In terms of the current situation, Russia is constantly insisting on the list of demands that NATO must not give Ukraine membership. Full stop! And NATO must not expand east of Europe. And... and... And the laundry list of demands also includes that the Western allies must put pressure on Ukraine to follow the demands set in the Minsk agreements.

President Vladimir Putin of the Russian Federation

As we can see, the West cannot really do very much when it comes to the last part, of Ukraine implementing the so-called agreements. This is just another demand to distract from the bigger issue that President Vladimir Putin is really after Ukraine to ''bring it back in the fold'' of the Motherland. We covered this in our earlier post here.

The best thing for the West to do now is to pour defensive weapons and military equipment into Ukraine, supply aid and military training. Ukraine can encourage more people to join the reserves and grow it military power. EU and USA can impose further sanctions on Russia, Putin's friends, and the man himself. By making it as expensive as possible for Russia to continue with the invasion with Ukraine, hopefully we can deter them from ever making an attack.

I know that the world's governments are looking at Russia in puzzlement right now and wondering what their next move will be. To my eyes, it is clear. They are planning an invasion and will act, soon. Russia is just biding its time to see if they can get results by talking. Talking is cheaper than action, so worth a shot. Putin's popularity is declining rapidly in his country, the economy is stagnant and COVID-19 deaths are piling up. I do not see how this situation will resolve itself through war. If anything, it will get worse.

Russian people will not stand to see more death, more casualties, for an old dictator's faded dream of the USSR. In the Donbass war, 14 000 people died so far. 400 to 500 were Russian armed forces, and 5768 were DPR and LPR separatists, which included Russian forces or mercenaries. How many people will die in the upcoming '' bloody and messy'' fight?

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