TURMOIL IN KAZAKHSTAN: Why are there protests and what is Russia doing?

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Kazakhstan has been making headlines this week with escalating protests that have been sparked by growing gas prices. People are not happy with the current regime and treatment of citizens. While turmoil was happening on the streets, President Tokayev had called unto Kremlin to help restore peace in the country. What is Russia doing in Kazakhstan? 

The country has more than enough resources, and military power, to calm down its own internal conflicts. What is also interesting is that President Putin answered the cry for help almost immediately. So let's take a look at what is going on with this crazy situation and try to answer the question of what the hell is Russia doing!

Kazakhstan's flag

WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON IN KAZAKHSTAN?

Public outcry had started on New Year's Day after the price of liquified petroleum gas (LPG) had increased immensely over a period of a few months. Residents in the town of Zhanaozen started to protest when they realised that the price of this common fuel rose to 120 tenge on first day of 2022. There already had been an increase to 70- 80 tenge at the end of 2021, when the price had hovered around 50 tenge for most of the last year.

As most of the residents in Zhanaozen use LPG for their cars, it was a change that was felt throughout the whole city. When the price hike was realised, it made the drivers get out of their cars and start to protest. This sparked other people to support, and as the tensions have been building up in the country for years now, it had started mass protesting in the whole nation. 

Crowds began gathering in many different big cities such as: Zhanaozen, Aqtobe, Nur-Sultan and Almaty. The internet and phone service had been cut out so it has been difficult for international media to get a clear picture of the events. 

The president had given orders to the troops to ''shoot to kill without warning'' as a bid to get the crowds under control. The rioters have burned administrative buildings in the capital, became quite violent and have even burned the Presidential Palace. At least 4,000 riot participants have been detained, over 164 people have died and 18 police officers have also been killed. 

HAVE PEOPLE BEEN UNHAPPY FOR A LONG TIME?

These protests are nothing new in the country. 2021 had been a tumultuous year for this country the size of Western Europe. For example, there were more labour strikes in the past year in Kazakhstan than the previous few years combined. Much of this strife had happened in the Mangystau Province, in Zhanaozen. 

Protesters reminiscing the Zhanaozen Massacre, that happened in December 2011. 

It seems that the protests are not just about labour strikes, or higher wages, or even the price of fuel. It is increasingly turning more problematic for the Kazakhstani authorities. People are crying out that they should be able to elect their local leaders. Many of these people in power had been named into their positions, and even the President himself was hand-picked by the previous Head of State. 

WHO IS CURRENT PRESIDENT AND WHY IS HE REMOVING THE OLD GUARD?

President of the Republic of Kazakhstan,  Kassym-Jomart Tokayev

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev came to power on March 20, 2019. Tokayev won the presidential election in June 2019 with a result of 70.96%. On 12 June, he took the oath as the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan. He was chosen by the previous president Nursultan Nazarbayev, who had been in power from the fall of USSR, on 24 May 1990. As such, Kazakhstan has had only two leaders since its independency 22 years ago. 

In the recent protests, there have been signs that it is not only about the oil prices, but a political struggle between President Tokayev and the old guard. Nazarbayev's loyalists have been enjoying positions of power, even under the Tokayev regime. 

Previous president of Kazakhstan after the fall of USSR, Nursultan Nazarbayev

The old president didn't completely relinquish power in 2019. He took the prestigious position as chairman of the Kazakhstan’s Security Council. He was forced out, or resigned, from this position on 5th January 2022, citing that he knows that the people are looking for a shift of power, and he has always been behind the people. 

On January 8th, it was announced that Karim Massimov, the former head of the Committee for National Security (KNB), was arrested on suspicion of treason. This was yet another sign that Tokayev is cleaning house. Massimov had long running career in Kazakh politics for the past 20 years, and was highly influential. Taking him down was no easy feat for Tokayev  because Massimov also had friends in very high places and was a very important and influential man. 

Karim Massimov, the former head of the Committee for National Security (KNB) being arrested 

WHAT IS RUSSIA DOING NOW IN KAZAKHSTAN? 

Around 2,500 Russian troops have been sent to Kazakhstan to help with ''peacekeeping'', and according to President Vladimir Putin, they will stay there until they finish the job. This is an interesting sentiment because United States Secretary of States, Antony Blinken, said that once Russia arrives in Kazakhstan, they will not leave. 

Many sources are wondering why Kazakhstan had to call unto Russia to help secure peace and bring the country under control, when they should have their own troops and police that can help with that. With a size of Western Europe, Kazakhstan is a very big country with a sparse population. 

Russian troops arriving in Kazakhstan

On top of that, people wonder what will Russia get out of this? Of course, we can surmise that with the Ukrainian conflict, President Putin does not want to have another former USSR country spin out of control. Also, having a President that is under Kremlin's control means that Kazakhstan, like Belarus, can be kept in its place until needed. Smaller allies in the region will also help to advance Putin's agenda for a stronger, pre-perestroika Russia. 

And, for Kazakhstan's Tokayev, being aligned with Putin means having a strong ally to rely on. 

HOW IS CHINA INVOLVED IN THE COUNTRY AND ARE THEY HAPPY WITH WHAT IS GOING ON?

China is also a neighbouring country to Kazakhstan and shares a 1782kms border with them. By and large, Beijing has remained silent about the events of the past week, saying that it is a domestic affair and they hope that it will be under control soon. 

President Xi of China with President Tokayev 

However, sources say that China is not happy about the ''external forces'' inside Kazakhstan, and have extended an offer to send military help. The shoot-to-kill orders, given by Tokayev on January 7, prompted President Xi Jinping to offer support in what he deemed ''a colour revolution'' in Kazakhstan.  

President Xi also praised President Tokayev for having a swift, strong and decisive action on such a critical crisis. He stressed that China does not support any forces that will undermine the stability of its neighbour, and puts in danger the security of the Kazakhstani people or their peaceful way of life. 

IMPACT ON THE WEST AND ALLIES?

The impact of the protests in Kazakhstan could be a geopolitical nightmare for the West because right now there are very critical talks going on in regards to Ukraine's future. I'm sure that Russia and China are watching intently to their smaller neighbour. The unrest seen in the Kazakhstani people can potentially bleed into Russia and China, and what is to say that same thing won't happen in those countries? 

U.S. State Secretary Antony Blinken

United States, in particular, can't really get involved at the moment. Their main tools, in this circumstance, would be sanctions. These just won't work in this situation as a lot of American energy companies are involved in Kazakhstan. Also, a lot of European allies would be affected economically if sanction were to be introduced. 

FUTURE AND GEOPOLITICS IN THE COUNTRY? 

The future is murky now for Kazakhstan. The protests and events of the past week have thrown all the previous cards in the air. Tokayev has got rid of the old guard, and dismissed the government, and showed his face as a future autocrat.

A protester being taken away by police in Kazakhstan 

Kazakhstan is now on a knife's edge. The president has clearly aligned with Russia and President Vladimir Putin. This, paired with the Ukrainian situation, is a geopolitical thin line at the moment. Will Kazakhstan be lost to the West, like Belarus? Or, maybe Tokayev is looking to flex his power, after living in the shadow of his predecessor for three years? Certainly, this is something that we need to wait and see. 

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