IS UKRAINE ON THE VERGE OF AN INVASION?

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This week, tensions in Ukraine has grown at an all time high as it faces an invasion from Russia. President Vladimir Putin has shown the world that he will not back down from the threat of forcibly occupying Ukraine, and repeating history like with Crimea in 2014. As the Unites States scramble with diplomatic talks and financial sanctions, the question on everybody's lips is: Will he actually do it, or was it all smoke and mirrors?

RUSSIAN TROOPS AND EQUIPMENT

Current Ukrainian intelligence estimates that there are about 127,000 Russian troops near the border. Sources say that Russia could double the amount of troops in a very short time, if needed. Part of this is 21,000 air force and navy personnel, and includes a whole host of military weaponry including: infantry fighting vehicles, self-propelled guns and tanks.   

Russian military build up of equipment and personnel near the Ukrainian border. (Source: Maxar Tech.)

In the past five days, military equipment and personnel deployments have increased exponentially. This would go in agreement with the intelligence that, in late December 2021, there was about 90,000 troops stationed on the border between the warring nations. 

It is suspected that part of the army is made up of contract soldiers. This could be one reason why the chances are that it is more of preparation for invasion, rather than a routine exercise. Other sources looking on Tiktok point to the fact that a lot of military personnel are telling their loved ones they will be deployed for 3 to 9 months, or possibly more. This would mean that it's quite a lot longer period than a military exercise. But, of course, these have to be taken with a grain of salt as sources can't be verified. 

DEMANDS NOT MET, DIPLOMACY FAILED 

Since January 10, 2022, there have been diplomatic discussions between United States, Russia, and members of the NATO alliance and European Union. This based on various demands that the Kremlin has made, including the assurances that NATO will not further expand in former Soviet nations, and Russia has specifically asked that they will get confirmation that Ukraine will never be accepted into NATO. 

Map showing NATO nations, Russia and all the activity that has been going on recently between both sides

In turn, Western leaders have showed a united front that Ukraine is a sovereign nation, and has the right to apply for NATO membership. This means that if Ukrainians decide they would like to apply to be a member state, they will be given the opportunity to do so. However, though not explicitly said, we can assume that Ukraine will not be accepted into the alliance any time soon.

Besides the growing tensions between United States and Russia, there is now increasingly more strain between United States and Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky, of Ukraine, hit back at US President, Joe Biden, when he said in a press conference this week that a ''minor incursion'' from Russia into Ukraine would get a less harsher reaction. Zelensky hit back that there were no ''minor incursions'' when it came to his country.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and  United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken

Today, Antony Blinken and Sergei Lavrov are meeting in Geneva to hold more diplomatic discussions on trying to find a peaceful resolution to this tense situation. Lavrov is the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. Mr Blinken is the United States Secretary of State.  

WHAT DOES PUTIN GAIN FROM INVADING UKRAINE?

For a while now, it has been speculated that Putin is just looking for a feather in his cap and to build his legacy. This means that he is trying to get more popularity amongst the Russian citizens by invading Ukraine, and getting back what belongs to the ''motherland''. A scenario reminiscent to the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

This attitude is clear in his recently published essay, written on July 12, 2021. There, he basically says that Ukrainians and Russian are one and the same people, and Ukraine as a country does not exist. Putin also admires people like Ivan the Terrible and Stalin. These leaders share in common the fact that they conquered vast pieces of land, using brutal and often bloody methods, and build Russia into a gargantuan empire. Putin dreams of the old USSR days, and would like to make his current Russia more like the one from his childhood.

Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation

A lot of sources speculate that the demands for NATO not to expand into Ukraine and neighbouring countries is a load of crock, and a tactic to deflect from his actual reasons of invading Ukraine. Of course, we can't ignore the fact that by having Ukraine and Belarus in his sphere of influence, it would mean a lot more power and coercion from these small states towards Russian interests. And geographically speaking, Russia is pretty much cornered by NATO on the European side. 

WHY INVADE NOW?

Now is the most perfect time to invade, according to Putin. This is because he takes several key factors into consideration, and maybe he is right: 

  • His popularity is waning: This is a method of garnering favour amongst the Russian people. Although, he may find that this will backfire. Russia is just coming to grips with the pandemic, with about 10 million confirmed cases so far, and 317,000 deaths due to COVID-19. Do the Russian people really want to see their children, spouses, or loved ones going to the front to die in a senseless war? Ukraine has already promised that the cost of an invasion will be high, both physically and financially. 
  • Europe has no clear, or strong, leader: After Brexit, England became a bit of a joke. Now that Angela Merkel left the German Bundestag, and a new successor has been elected, Chancellor Olaf Scholz will have to prove that he has the gall that his predecessor had. She was considered the ''Putin Whisperer'' and de-facto leader of the EU. President Macron, of France, is also busy pushing his own agendas of a European army, while also pushing his own internal matters. 
  • United States has weak leadership, too: President Biden's popularity in the USA has plummeted since he was elected. Especially, the failed withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan has been accredited to contribute to that quite a lot. As well, the United States Vice President, Kamala Harris, is facing backlash against her at the moment.  
  • Russia is sitting on a good amount of reserves: The value of Russia's total international reserves were calculated at a whooping US$596 billion at the end of 2020. This includes gold. The value of the reserves has increased by just over 7% since 2019. Putin has also assured that Russia has stockpiled enough oil reserves not to run out at any time soon. 
  • Pandemic fatigue and decimation of world economy:  As the COVID-19 virus, and its variants, are spreading around the world, leaders are distracted with pandemic lockdowns and restrictions instead of fully paying attention to what is happening on the global stage. Also, the straining economies are now starting to show cracks as money has been poured into supporting various businesses and populations during the times when countries were shut down completely.
  • Good timing:  The above have contributed largely to Putin's confidence in preparing to launch an invasion into Ukraine, but one can't ignore the time of the year. Biden came out this week with information that maybe Russians are waiting for the ground to freeze before launching an attack.
  • Nothing happened in 2014, and likely nothing will happen now: Or at least this is what Putin is probably thinking. And the message from the West does seem to be that if an invasion was to happen, the only consequences would be more economic sanctions. Although, a lot of countries are helping Ukraine with military personnel to help train Ukrainian armed forces, and also giving a lot of munitions and funds to cover the expense of war. 
CONCLUSION 

I think the scrutiny is now on Russia and what it's long-time leader will do in the next few days. He already triggered ''planned military exercise'' with Belarus, right on the border of Ukraine. Now there is chatter that a bill is passing trough Belarusian parliament that would allow Russia to bring nuclear weapons in Belarus. 

It seems that Britain is supporting Ukraine quite strongly. They have sent 30 troops to help train Ukrainian military personnel, about 2000 anti-tank weapons, specifically NLAW complex (Next Generation Light Anti-Tank Weapon) and now reports have come out that even British special forces have arrived in Ukraine.

Next Generation Light Anti-Tank Weapon

USA has provided US$200 million in military aid, as well as providing about 200 National Guard soldiers to help train and advice local forces in Ukraine. USA has no plans to send troops into the country to fight against Russia. This is because Ukraine and USA don't have treaty binding them together, and also because getting involved in a war in Europe would be a huge gamble. There are also US special forces present in Ukraine, to train and provide guidance to Ukrainian armed forces personnel. 

All I can say is that the situation is more worrying every day. Of course, we always think about what will happen in the war escalated and it extended beyond the borders of Ukraine? Is Europe prepared for war?

References: 

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